Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton secured victory in Illinois's March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. Senate primary for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's open seat, capturing approximately 40% of the vote to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's 33%, a margin of 6.8–7.7 percentage points across final tallies from over 1.1 million ballots. Trader consensus reflects certified results from major outlets like the Associated Press and state canvass, confirming Stratton's edge through strong Chicago and downstate turnout bolstered by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC support, overcoming Krishnamoorthi's suburban strength and fundraising lead. Late polls showing Stratton's surge solidified pre-election positioning. Only an improbable recount altering thousands of votes could shift the 6–9% bin, with no disputes reported as of mid-April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStratton 6–9% 100.0%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ <1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9% <1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6% <1%
$27,646 Vol.
$27,646 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
No
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
No
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
No
Krishnamoorthi <3%
No
Stratton <3%
No
Stratton 3–6%
No
Stratton 6–9%
Yes
Stratton 9%+
No
Other
No
Stratton 6–9% 100.0%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ <1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9% <1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6% <1%
$27,646 Vol.
$27,646 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
$3,806 Vol.
No
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
$0 Vol.
No
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
$1,877 Vol.
No
Krishnamoorthi <3%
$0 Vol.
No
Stratton <3%
$3,360 Vol.
No
Stratton 3–6%
$5,357 Vol.
No
Stratton 6–9%
$8,501 Vol.
Yes
Stratton 9%+
$2,527 Vol.
No
Other
$2,219 Vol.
No
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton secured victory in Illinois's March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. Senate primary for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's open seat, capturing approximately 40% of the vote to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's 33%, a margin of 6.8–7.7 percentage points across final tallies from over 1.1 million ballots. Trader consensus reflects certified results from major outlets like the Associated Press and state canvass, confirming Stratton's edge through strong Chicago and downstate turnout bolstered by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC support, overcoming Krishnamoorthi's suburban strength and fundraising lead. Late polls showing Stratton's surge solidified pre-election positioning. Only an improbable recount altering thousands of votes could shift the 6–9% bin, with no disputes reported as of mid-April.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,646End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton secured victory in Illinois's March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. Senate primary for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's open seat, capturing approximately 40% of the vote to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's 33%, a margin of 6.8–7.7 percentage points across final tallies from over 1.1 million ballots. Trader consensus reflects certified results from major outlets like the Associated Press and state canvass, confirming Stratton's edge through strong Chicago and downstate turnout bolstered by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC support, overcoming Krishnamoorthi's suburban strength and fundraising lead. Late polls showing Stratton's surge solidified pre-election positioning. Only an improbable recount altering thousands of votes could shift the 6–9% bin, with no disputes reported as of mid-April.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$27,646End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton secured victory in Illinois's March 17, 2026, Democratic U.S. Senate primary for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's open seat, capturing approximately 40% of the vote to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's 33%, a margin of 6.8–7.7 percentage points across final tallies from over 1.1 million ballots. Trader consensus reflects certified results from major outlets like the Associated Press and state canvass, confirming Stratton's edge through strong Chicago and downstate turnout bolstered by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC support, overcoming Krishnamoorthi's suburban strength and fundraising lead. Late polls showing Stratton's surge solidified pre-election positioning. Only an improbable recount altering thousands of votes could shift the 6–9% bin, with no disputes reported as of mid-April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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