IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Name: IN-04 Republican Primary Winner
Start: 2026-03-20T18:57:52.280Z
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Craig Haggard 26%

John Piper 6%

Jim Baird 0

NEW

May 5, 2026

Craig Haggard

$144 Vol.

26%

John Piper

$432 Vol.

Jim Baird

$181 Vol.

47%

Craig Haggard 26%

John Piper 6%

Jim Baird 0

NEW

May 5, 2026

Craig Haggard

$144 Vol.

26%

John Piper

$432 Vol.

Jim Baird

$181 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird leads trader consensus at 48% in the IN-04 Republican primary due to his fundraising dominance—over $1 million raised—strong polling averages showing him ahead by 20+ points, and endorsements from Trump and local GOP figures. Challenger Craig Haggard holds 27% on self-funded ads criticizing Baird's farm bill votes and conservative credentials, narrowing the gap in recent internal surveys. John Piper trails at 5.5% with limited visibility. Recent catalysts include a April poll reinforcing Baird's edge and Haggard's ad blitz, ahead of the May 7 primary; markets reflect incumbency base rates where sitting members win over 90% of primaries.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC

Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?

96%

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

66%

Will James Kingston be the Republican nominee for GA-01?

52%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Baird" at 47%, followed by "Craig Haggard" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jim Baird" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Craig Haggard" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “IN-04 Republican Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 47¢ for "Jim Baird" in the "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 47% chance that "Jim Baird" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 47¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 53¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 5, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

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