Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election show Likud projected at roughly 19–27 seats in most surveys, well below its current 32-seat holding. This positioning reflects sustained competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud, alongside gains for Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and smaller right-wing lists that fragment the governing bloc. Netanyahu’s coalition averages around 50–53 seats, short of a majority, while party-list finalization and threshold battles have further highlighted Likud’s relative weakness. Traders’ strong consensus for seat losses aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of recent momentum shifts favoring the incumbent party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
92% chance
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election show Likud projected at roughly 19–27 seats in most surveys, well below its current 32-seat holding. This positioning reflects sustained competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud, alongside gains for Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and smaller right-wing lists that fragment the governing bloc. Netanyahu’s coalition averages around 50–53 seats, short of a majority, while party-list finalization and threshold battles have further highlighted Likud’s relative weakness. Traders’ strong consensus for seat losses aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of recent momentum shifts favoring the incumbent party.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$17,763End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election show Likud projected at roughly 19–27 seats in most surveys, well below its current 32-seat holding. This positioning reflects sustained competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud, alongside gains for Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and smaller right-wing lists that fragment the governing bloc. Netanyahu’s coalition averages around 50–53 seats, short of a majority, while party-list finalization and threshold battles have further highlighted Likud’s relative weakness. Traders’ strong consensus for seat losses aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of recent momentum shifts favoring the incumbent party.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$17,763End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election show Likud projected at roughly 19–27 seats in most surveys, well below its current 32-seat holding. This positioning reflects sustained competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud, alongside gains for Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and smaller right-wing lists that fragment the governing bloc. Netanyahu’s coalition averages around 50–53 seats, short of a majority, while party-list finalization and threshold battles have further highlighted Likud’s relative weakness. Traders’ strong consensus for seat losses aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of recent momentum shifts favoring the incumbent party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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