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icon for Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Politics·Fed Chair

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

icon for Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Politics·Fed Chair

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$447,881 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$447,881 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$161,289 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, anchoring trader expectations that he will remain on the Board well beyond his May 2026 chairmanship handover to Kevin Warsh. Market-implied odds reflect this structural reality, with low probabilities assigned to an exit before year-end 2026 amid Powell’s public commitment to stay and defend institutional independence following earlier legal scrutiny. Recent Fed communications and administration statements have not altered the fixed-term framework or introduced credible removal pathways, which require cause under statute. Traders monitor ongoing political tensions and any signals around potential vacancies or investigations, though no near-term catalysts appear poised to shift the consensus pricing of extended tenure.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$447,881
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, anchoring trader expectations that he will remain on the Board well beyond his May 2026 chairmanship handover to Kevin Warsh. Market-implied odds reflect this structural reality, with low probabilities assigned to an exit before year-end 2026 amid Powell’s public commitment to stay and defend institutional independence following earlier legal scrutiny. Recent Fed communications and administration statements have not altered the fixed-term framework or introduced credible removal pathways, which require cause under statute. Traders monitor ongoing political tensions and any signals around potential vacancies or investigations, though no near-term catalysts appear poised to shift the consensus pricing of extended tenure.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$447,881
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 11%, followed by "May 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" has generated $447.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" is "December 31" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.