Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured renomination with over 85% in the May primary and faces Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield in the November general for Kentucky’s 2nd district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. The district’s R+20 Partisan Voting Index, rural and suburban voter base centered on Bowling Green and Owensboro, and Guthrie’s consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles underpin trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a commanding position. Wingfield’s primary performance reflected limited resources and a fragmented field. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-02 House Election Winner
KY-02 House Election Winner
$13,365 Vol.
$13,365 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$13,365 Vol.
$13,365 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,022 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$7,343 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured renomination with over 85% in the May primary and faces Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield in the November general for Kentucky’s 2nd district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. The district’s R+20 Partisan Voting Index, rural and suburban voter base centered on Bowling Green and Owensboro, and Guthrie’s consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles underpin trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a commanding position. Wingfield’s primary performance reflected limited resources and a fragmented field. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$13,365End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured renomination with over 85% in the May primary and faces Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield in the November general for Kentucky’s 2nd district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. The district’s R+20 Partisan Voting Index, rural and suburban voter base centered on Bowling Green and Owensboro, and Guthrie’s consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles underpin trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a commanding position. Wingfield’s primary performance reflected limited resources and a fragmented field. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,365End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured renomination with over 85% in the May primary and faces Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield in the November general for Kentucky’s 2nd district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. The district’s R+20 Partisan Voting Index, rural and suburban voter base centered on Bowling Green and Owensboro, and Guthrie’s consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles underpin trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a commanding position. Wingfield’s primary performance reflected limited resources and a fragmented field. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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