Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Miami’s July 4 overnight low because current model guidance and climatology place the minimum near the July average of 80°F amid persistent high humidity and weak steering flow. Abundant tropical moisture and scattered afternoon convection limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while variable cloud cover and light winds introduce the main uncertainty that separates the top two bins. A tropical disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic could enhance overnight cloudiness and nudge readings toward the lower 78–79°F range or briefly suppress them further if showers linger, yet steering patterns favor typical summer conditions without strong cooling mechanisms. National Weather Service updates on convection timing and boundary-layer moisture will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on July 4?
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 4?
80-81°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$34,970 Vol.
$34,970 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$34,970 Vol.
$34,970 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
67°F or below
$791 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$717 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,525 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$1,059 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,792 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,405 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$4,395 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$16,853 Vol.
Yes
82-83°F
$4,012 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$1,461 Vol.
No
86°F or higher
$958 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Miami’s July 4 overnight low because current model guidance and climatology place the minimum near the July average of 80°F amid persistent high humidity and weak steering flow. Abundant tropical moisture and scattered afternoon convection limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while variable cloud cover and light winds introduce the main uncertainty that separates the top two bins. A tropical disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic could enhance overnight cloudiness and nudge readings toward the lower 78–79°F range or briefly suppress them further if showers linger, yet steering patterns favor typical summer conditions without strong cooling mechanisms. National Weather Service updates on convection timing and boundary-layer moisture will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$34,970End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Miami’s July 4 overnight low because current model guidance and climatology place the minimum near the July average of 80°F amid persistent high humidity and weak steering flow. Abundant tropical moisture and scattered afternoon convection limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while variable cloud cover and light winds introduce the main uncertainty that separates the top two bins. A tropical disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic could enhance overnight cloudiness and nudge readings toward the lower 78–79°F range or briefly suppress them further if showers linger, yet steering patterns favor typical summer conditions without strong cooling mechanisms. National Weather Service updates on convection timing and boundary-layer moisture will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,970End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 78–81°F for Miami’s July 4 overnight low because current model guidance and climatology place the minimum near the July average of 80°F amid persistent high humidity and weak steering flow. Abundant tropical moisture and scattered afternoon convection limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while variable cloud cover and light winds introduce the main uncertainty that separates the top two bins. A tropical disturbance approaching from the western Atlantic could enhance overnight cloudiness and nudge readings toward the lower 78–79°F range or briefly suppress them further if showers linger, yet steering patterns favor typical summer conditions without strong cooling mechanisms. National Weather Service updates on convection timing and boundary-layer moisture will refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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