Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate an overnight low for New York City on July 11 near the 70–73°F range, consistent with typical mid-July climatology where average lows hover around 71°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 66–75°F bands because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can alter radiational cooling by a few degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Recent model runs show modest northeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit extreme cooling or warming, keeping probabilities spread across adjacent brackets. No major atmospheric shifts such as strong frontal passages or anomalous humidity have emerged in the past 48 hours to narrow the range further. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 11?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 11?
72-73°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
Yes
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
72-73°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
63°F or below
$1,842 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,065 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$2,076 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,821 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,282 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$2,886 Vol.
Yes
74-75°F
$2,584 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,291 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$759 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,273 Vol.
No
82°F or higher
$1,172 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate an overnight low for New York City on July 11 near the 70–73°F range, consistent with typical mid-July climatology where average lows hover around 71°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 66–75°F bands because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can alter radiational cooling by a few degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Recent model runs show modest northeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit extreme cooling or warming, keeping probabilities spread across adjacent brackets. No major atmospheric shifts such as strong frontal passages or anomalous humidity have emerged in the past 48 hours to narrow the range further. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$18,051End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate an overnight low for New York City on July 11 near the 70–73°F range, consistent with typical mid-July climatology where average lows hover around 71°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 66–75°F bands because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can alter radiational cooling by a few degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Recent model runs show modest northeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit extreme cooling or warming, keeping probabilities spread across adjacent brackets. No major atmospheric shifts such as strong frontal passages or anomalous humidity have emerged in the past 48 hours to narrow the range further. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,051End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate an overnight low for New York City on July 11 near the 70–73°F range, consistent with typical mid-July climatology where average lows hover around 71°F. Trader consensus clusters in the 66–75°F bands because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer moisture can alter radiational cooling by a few degrees, creating genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome. Recent model runs show modest northeasterly flow and partly cloudy conditions that limit extreme cooling or warming, keeping probabilities spread across adjacent brackets. No major atmospheric shifts such as strong frontal passages or anomalous humidity have emerged in the past 48 hours to narrow the range further. Updated guidance expected from the National Weather Service overnight will likely refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions