Recent model consensus points to a weakening heat dome allowing a frontal boundary to approach the Northeast on July 5, introducing showers and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps daytime highs near 86°F while creating uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of any precipitation will determine whether the low settles in the mid-70s or dips toward 70°F, consistent with the tightly clustered market odds around 72–75°F. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet the ongoing heat wave’s lingering warmth and model spread on boundary placement sustain the balanced probabilities across the 68–77°F range. Updated NWS guidance and high-resolution runs expected overnight will likely refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 5?
72-73°F 99.9%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$45,637 Vol.
$45,637 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
Yes
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
72-73°F 99.9%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$45,637 Vol.
$45,637 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
61°F or below
$2,154 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$3,443 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$4,353 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$3,055 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$4,066 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$4,181 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$9,975 Vol.
Yes
74-75°F
$5,846 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$2,464 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,397 Vol.
No
80°F or higher
$4,703 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a weakening heat dome allowing a frontal boundary to approach the Northeast on July 5, introducing showers and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps daytime highs near 86°F while creating uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of any precipitation will determine whether the low settles in the mid-70s or dips toward 70°F, consistent with the tightly clustered market odds around 72–75°F. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet the ongoing heat wave’s lingering warmth and model spread on boundary placement sustain the balanced probabilities across the 68–77°F range. Updated NWS guidance and high-resolution runs expected overnight will likely refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$45,637End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a weakening heat dome allowing a frontal boundary to approach the Northeast on July 5, introducing showers and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps daytime highs near 86°F while creating uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of any precipitation will determine whether the low settles in the mid-70s or dips toward 70°F, consistent with the tightly clustered market odds around 72–75°F. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet the ongoing heat wave’s lingering warmth and model spread on boundary placement sustain the balanced probabilities across the 68–77°F range. Updated NWS guidance and high-resolution runs expected overnight will likely refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,637End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model consensus points to a weakening heat dome allowing a frontal boundary to approach the Northeast on July 5, introducing showers and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps daytime highs near 86°F while creating uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of any precipitation will determine whether the low settles in the mid-70s or dips toward 70°F, consistent with the tightly clustered market odds around 72–75°F. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet the ongoing heat wave’s lingering warmth and model spread on boundary placement sustain the balanced probabilities across the 68–77°F range. Updated NWS guidance and high-resolution runs expected overnight will likely refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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