Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Vol.
$12,747 Vol.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Vol.
$12,747 Vol.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
$424 Vol.
No
9°C
$899 Vol.
No
10°C
$457 Vol.
No
11°C
$633 Vol.
No
12°C
$809 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,029 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,950 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$1,191 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,692 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,913 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$1,750 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$12,747End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,747End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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