Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the contract resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that per NOAA guidance limit rapid intensification potential. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Five months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$230,609 Vol.
$230,609 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$230,609 Vol.
$230,609 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the contract resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that per NOAA guidance limit rapid intensification potential. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Five months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$230,609End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the contract resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that per NOAA guidance limit rapid intensification potential. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Five months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$230,609End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 85.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the contract resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that per NOAA guidance limit rapid intensification potential. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Five months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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