Traders assign a 75% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the lack of events meeting the market's specific thresholds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring. Official data from NOAA and USGS through early August show typical regional floods, wildfires, and minor earthquakes without triggering resolution criteria, consistent with below-average tropical cyclone activity linked to developing El Niño patterns that often suppress Atlantic formation. Historical baselines indicate such markets resolve based on defined magnitude, landfall, or loss thresholds rather than routine occurrences, and current forecast models align with this positioning. Key upcoming NHC updates and late-year seismic surveillance will test whether conditions shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 75% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the lack of events meeting the market's specific thresholds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring. Official data from NOAA and USGS through early August show typical regional floods, wildfires, and minor earthquakes without triggering resolution criteria, consistent with below-average tropical cyclone activity linked to developing El Niño patterns that often suppress Atlantic formation. Historical baselines indicate such markets resolve based on defined magnitude, landfall, or loss thresholds rather than routine occurrences, and current forecast models align with this positioning. Key upcoming NHC updates and late-year seismic surveillance will test whether conditions shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$232,536End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 75% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the lack of events meeting the market's specific thresholds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring. Official data from NOAA and USGS through early August show typical regional floods, wildfires, and minor earthquakes without triggering resolution criteria, consistent with below-average tropical cyclone activity linked to developing El Niño patterns that often suppress Atlantic formation. Historical baselines indicate such markets resolve based on defined magnitude, landfall, or loss thresholds rather than routine occurrences, and current forecast models align with this positioning. Key upcoming NHC updates and late-year seismic surveillance will test whether conditions shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$232,536End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 75% implied probability to no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the lack of events meeting the market's specific thresholds amid ongoing seasonal monitoring. Official data from NOAA and USGS through early August show typical regional floods, wildfires, and minor earthquakes without triggering resolution criteria, consistent with below-average tropical cyclone activity linked to developing El Niño patterns that often suppress Atlantic formation. Historical baselines indicate such markets resolve based on defined magnitude, landfall, or loss thresholds rather than routine occurrences, and current forecast models align with this positioning. Key upcoming NHC updates and late-year seismic surveillance will test whether conditions shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions