Skip to main content
icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politics·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politics·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

Jess Wilson 58%

Ben Carroll 12%

Warren Pickering 5%

Brad Battin 5%

Polymarket
NEW

Jess Wilson 58%

Ben Carroll 12%

Warren Pickering 5%

Brad Battin 5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$676 Vol.

58%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$168 Vol.

12%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$50 Vol.

5%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$100 Vol.

5%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$100 Vol.

5%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$100 Vol.

5%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$100 Vol.

3%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming November 2026 Victorian state election drives the market, with a three-way primary contest leaving Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation each polling near 25-30 percent. Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in a July leadership spill triggered by poor polling and construction-sector integrity concerns, yet preferred-premier surveys still show Jess Wilson ahead of Carroll. Traders price Wilson highest because the Coalition needs fewer additional seats to reach a majority, while One Nation’s surge complicates preferences and raises the chance of a hung parliament. Recent polling volatility, One Nation candidate announcements and the short campaign window keep separation limited; further shifts in two-party-preferred trends, major-party preference deals or late economic data could widen the gap before election day.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,994
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming November 2026 Victorian state election drives the market, with a three-way primary contest leaving Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation each polling near 25-30 percent. Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in a July leadership spill triggered by poor polling and construction-sector integrity concerns, yet preferred-premier surveys still show Jess Wilson ahead of Carroll. Traders price Wilson highest because the Coalition needs fewer additional seats to reach a majority, while One Nation’s surge complicates preferences and raises the chance of a hung parliament. Recent polling volatility, One Nation candidate announcements and the short campaign window keep separation limited; further shifts in two-party-preferred trends, major-party preference deals or late economic data could widen the gap before election day.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,994
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

74%
icon for Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

91%
icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

73%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Premier of Victoria" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jess Wilson" at 58%, followed by "Ben Carroll" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Premier of Victoria" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Premier of Victoria," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Premier of Victoria" is "Jess Wilson" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ben Carroll" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Premier of Victoria" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.