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icon for NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Hakeem Jeffries 96%

Vance Bostic 3.1%

Chi Ossé 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Hakeem Jeffries 96%

Vance Bostic 3.1%

Chi Ossé 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$4,449 Vol.

96%

icon for Vance Bostic

Vance Bostic

$605 Vol.

3%

icon for Chi Ossé

Chi Ossé

$317 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Hakeem Jeffries' entrenched incumbency as House Democratic Leader, bolstered by superior fundraising, party loyalty, and a track record of easy primary wins in solidly Democratic NY-08, drives trader consensus implying 96% odds of victory on June 23. NYC Councilmember Chi Ossé's December 2025 withdrawal after an early filing consolidated support behind the incumbent, leaving his long-shot 1% as market residue. Challenger Vance Bostic, a grassroots Brooklyn activist and first-time candidate gathering petition signatures post-April 2 filing deadline, garners 3% amid low visibility and no polls showing upset potential. Realistic shifts require Jeffries scandal, health issue, or surprise progressive endorsement surge, though historical base rates for congressional incumbents exceed 95% primary retention.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District.

If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,370
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 11, 2025, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Hakeem Jeffries' entrenched incumbency as House Democratic Leader, bolstered by superior fundraising, party loyalty, and a track record of easy primary wins in solidly Democratic NY-08, drives trader consensus implying 96% odds of victory on June 23. NYC Councilmember Chi Ossé's December 2025 withdrawal after an early filing consolidated support behind the incumbent, leaving his long-shot 1% as market residue. Challenger Vance Bostic, a grassroots Brooklyn activist and first-time candidate gathering petition signatures post-April 2 filing deadline, garners 3% amid low visibility and no polls showing upset potential. Realistic shifts require Jeffries scandal, health issue, or surprise progressive endorsement surge, though historical base rates for congressional incumbents exceed 95% primary retention.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District.

If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,370
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 11, 2025, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 96%, followed by "Vance Bostic" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 11, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Vance Bostic" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.