Traders see the 2026 midterm environment as competitive for Republican House seats, with the highest probabilities clustered in the 190-199 range and below. Midterm dynamics typically favor the opposition party, and recent polling trends plus fundraising reports have reinforced expectations of limited net gains or modest losses for the majority. Key variables include economic indicators, voter turnout in battleground districts, and the impact of redistricting on competitive seats. The spread across multiple bins reflects uncertainty over late-cycle shifts from national messaging, candidate quality, and any last-minute developments in the final weeks before Election Day. Historical patterns show that small changes in swing-district margins can move final totals by 5-10 seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
Menos de 190 25%
195-199 20%
200-204 13.7%
190-194 13%
$298,431 Vol.
$298,431 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Menos de 190
25%
190-194
13%
195-199
20%
200-204
14%
205-209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
4%
225-229
3%
230+
3%
Menos de 190 25%
195-199 20%
200-204 13.7%
190-194 13%
$298,431 Vol.
$298,431 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$37,169 Vol.
25%
190-194
$15,171 Vol.
13%
195-199
$33,814 Vol.
20%
200-204
$26,260 Vol.
14%
205-209
$41,381 Vol.
12%
210-214
$16,216 Vol.
10%
215-219
$12,078 Vol.
7%
220-224
$59,750 Vol.
4%
225-229
$25,066 Vol.
3%
230+
$31,525 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 2026 midterm environment as competitive for Republican House seats, with the highest probabilities clustered in the 190-199 range and below. Midterm dynamics typically favor the opposition party, and recent polling trends plus fundraising reports have reinforced expectations of limited net gains or modest losses for the majority. Key variables include economic indicators, voter turnout in battleground districts, and the impact of redistricting on competitive seats. The spread across multiple bins reflects uncertainty over late-cycle shifts from national messaging, candidate quality, and any last-minute developments in the final weeks before Election Day. Historical patterns show that small changes in swing-district margins can move final totals by 5-10 seats.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$298,431Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 2026 midterm environment as competitive for Republican House seats, with the highest probabilities clustered in the 190-199 range and below. Midterm dynamics typically favor the opposition party, and recent polling trends plus fundraising reports have reinforced expectations of limited net gains or modest losses for the majority. Key variables include economic indicators, voter turnout in battleground districts, and the impact of redistricting on competitive seats. The spread across multiple bins reflects uncertainty over late-cycle shifts from national messaging, candidate quality, and any last-minute developments in the final weeks before Election Day. Historical patterns show that small changes in swing-district margins can move final totals by 5-10 seats.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$298,431Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see the 2026 midterm environment as competitive for Republican House seats, with the highest probabilities clustered in the 190-199 range and below. Midterm dynamics typically favor the opposition party, and recent polling trends plus fundraising reports have reinforced expectations of limited net gains or modest losses for the majority. Key variables include economic indicators, voter turnout in battleground districts, and the impact of redistricting on competitive seats. The spread across multiple bins reflects uncertainty over late-cycle shifts from national messaging, candidate quality, and any last-minute developments in the final weeks before Election Day. Historical patterns show that small changes in swing-district margins can move final totals by 5-10 seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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33%
Sí
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Sí
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Sí
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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