Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 218 seats amid a typical midterm environment that has produced consistent Democratic advantages of five to seven points in generic ballot polling. This dynamic, combined with dozens of competitive battleground districts rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters and numerous Republican retirements creating open seats, has concentrated trader consensus on outcomes between 190 and 204 seats. Redistricting adjustments completed earlier in the cycle provided some structural offsets for Republicans, yet historical patterns of the president's party losing ground continue to weigh on probabilities. Upcoming fall special elections, candidate recruitment trends, and shifts in national economic conditions or turnout patterns in swing districts could produce clearer separation among the closely bunched ranges before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
195-199 26%
Menos de 190 22%
190-194 15%
205-209 14.6%
$283,692 Vol.
$283,692 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
22%
190-194
15%
195-199
26%
200-204
18%
205-209
15%
210-214
10%
215-219
8%
220-224
1%
225-229
5%
230+
4%
195-199 26%
Menos de 190 22%
190-194 15%
205-209 14.6%
$283,692 Vol.
$283,692 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$31,121 Vol.
22%
190-194
$13,527 Vol.
15%
195-199
$32,585 Vol.
26%
200-204
$24,543 Vol.
18%
205-209
$40,064 Vol.
15%
210-214
$15,660 Vol.
10%
215-219
$11,441 Vol.
8%
220-224
$59,094 Vol.
1%
225-229
$24,716 Vol.
5%
230+
$30,941 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 218 seats amid a typical midterm environment that has produced consistent Democratic advantages of five to seven points in generic ballot polling. This dynamic, combined with dozens of competitive battleground districts rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters and numerous Republican retirements creating open seats, has concentrated trader consensus on outcomes between 190 and 204 seats. Redistricting adjustments completed earlier in the cycle provided some structural offsets for Republicans, yet historical patterns of the president's party losing ground continue to weigh on probabilities. Upcoming fall special elections, candidate recruitment trends, and shifts in national economic conditions or turnout patterns in swing districts could produce clearer separation among the closely bunched ranges before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$283,692Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 218 seats amid a typical midterm environment that has produced consistent Democratic advantages of five to seven points in generic ballot polling. This dynamic, combined with dozens of competitive battleground districts rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters and numerous Republican retirements creating open seats, has concentrated trader consensus on outcomes between 190 and 204 seats. Redistricting adjustments completed earlier in the cycle provided some structural offsets for Republicans, yet historical patterns of the president's party losing ground continue to weigh on probabilities. Upcoming fall special elections, candidate recruitment trends, and shifts in national economic conditions or turnout patterns in swing districts could produce clearer separation among the closely bunched ranges before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$283,692Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority near 218 seats amid a typical midterm environment that has produced consistent Democratic advantages of five to seven points in generic ballot polling. This dynamic, combined with dozens of competitive battleground districts rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters and numerous Republican retirements creating open seats, has concentrated trader consensus on outcomes between 190 and 204 seats. Redistricting adjustments completed earlier in the cycle provided some structural offsets for Republicans, yet historical patterns of the president's party losing ground continue to weigh on probabilities. Upcoming fall special elections, candidate recruitment trends, and shifts in national economic conditions or turnout patterns in swing districts could produce clearer separation among the closely bunched ranges before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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27%
Sí
¿Tendrán los republicanos entre 47 y 49 escaños en el Senado y entre 193 y 207 escaños en la Cámara después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de 2026?
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Sí
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Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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