The spread across Republican House seat outcomes reflects midterm headwinds for the president's party, tempered by structural advantages like district maps and candidate recruitment. Recent polling averages in competitive districts, primary results, and voter registration trends have kept implied probabilities clustered between roughly 190 and 220 seats. Economic indicators, legislative outcomes on spending and immigration, and turnout patterns among key demographics continue to shape trader assessments. Scheduled events such as the August recess, September candidate deadlines, and October debates could shift positioning, while late-cycle polling or special election results may widen or narrow the range before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
Menos de 190 22%
200-204 13.8%
210-214 13.6%
190-194 13%
$278,987 Vol.
$278,987 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
22%
190-194
13%
195-199
13%
200-204
14%
205-209
9%
210-214
14%
215-219
7%
220-224
5%
225-229
7%
230+
2%
Menos de 190 22%
200-204 13.8%
210-214 13.6%
190-194 13%
$278,987 Vol.
$278,987 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$30,202 Vol.
22%
190-194
$13,222 Vol.
13%
195-199
$31,986 Vol.
13%
200-204
$24,408 Vol.
14%
205-209
$38,902 Vol.
9%
210-214
$14,774 Vol.
14%
215-219
$11,341 Vol.
7%
220-224
$58,847 Vol.
5%
225-229
$24,618 Vol.
7%
230+
$30,688 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The spread across Republican House seat outcomes reflects midterm headwinds for the president's party, tempered by structural advantages like district maps and candidate recruitment. Recent polling averages in competitive districts, primary results, and voter registration trends have kept implied probabilities clustered between roughly 190 and 220 seats. Economic indicators, legislative outcomes on spending and immigration, and turnout patterns among key demographics continue to shape trader assessments. Scheduled events such as the August recess, September candidate deadlines, and October debates could shift positioning, while late-cycle polling or special election results may widen or narrow the range before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$278,987Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The spread across Republican House seat outcomes reflects midterm headwinds for the president's party, tempered by structural advantages like district maps and candidate recruitment. Recent polling averages in competitive districts, primary results, and voter registration trends have kept implied probabilities clustered between roughly 190 and 220 seats. Economic indicators, legislative outcomes on spending and immigration, and turnout patterns among key demographics continue to shape trader assessments. Scheduled events such as the August recess, September candidate deadlines, and October debates could shift positioning, while late-cycle polling or special election results may widen or narrow the range before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$278,987Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The spread across Republican House seat outcomes reflects midterm headwinds for the president's party, tempered by structural advantages like district maps and candidate recruitment. Recent polling averages in competitive districts, primary results, and voter registration trends have kept implied probabilities clustered between roughly 190 and 220 seats. Economic indicators, legislative outcomes on spending and immigration, and turnout patterns among key demographics continue to shape trader assessments. Scheduled events such as the August recess, September candidate deadlines, and October debates could shift positioning, while late-cycle polling or special election results may widen or narrow the range before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Tendrán los republicanos entre 47 y 49 escaños en el Senado y entre 193 y 207 escaños en la Cámara después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de 2026?
20%
Sí
¿Los republicanos obtienen la trifecta con supermayoría en el Senado en las elecciones de medio término?
5%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
77%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes