The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Jaguarão 28%
Manuela D'Ávila 25%
Sanderson 25%
Pimenta 24%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Jaguarão
28%
Manuela D'Ávila
25%
Sanderson
25%
Pimenta
24%
Marcel Van Hattem
23%
Rigotto
22%
Frederico Antunes
21%
Milton Cardoso
19%
Ric Jones
11%
Luciano do MLB
9%
Regis Ethur
8%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
8%
Tania Peres
24%
Renato Jaguarão 28%
Manuela D'Ávila 25%
Sanderson 25%
Pimenta 24%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Jaguarão
$20 Vol.
28%
Manuela D'Ávila
$20 Vol.
25%
Sanderson
$20 Vol.
25%
Pimenta
$20 Vol.
24%
Marcel Van Hattem
$20 Vol.
23%
Rigotto
$20 Vol.
22%
Frederico Antunes
$20 Vol.
21%
Milton Cardoso
$20 Vol.
19%
Ric Jones
$59 Vol.
11%
Luciano do MLB
$101 Vol.
9%
Regis Ethur
$87 Vol.
8%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$71 Vol.
8%
Tania Peres
$280 Vol.
24%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$757End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$757End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The open Senate race in Rio Grande do Sul for two seats on October 4, 2026, features no incumbents and a fragmented field of more than a dozen pre-candidates from parties including PT, PSOL, MDB, Novo, PL, PSDB, and Cidadania. Recent Genial/Quaest polling shows a technical tie among top contenders such as Manuela D'Ávila, Germano Rigotto, Paulo Pimenta, Marcel Van Hattem, and Ubiratan Sanderson, with first- and second-preference votes closely bunched in single digits to low teens. A July debate among eight pre-candidates highlighted shared themes like state debt and institutional issues without producing clear separation. Trader consensus on 2nd-place probabilities remains compressed because the multi-candidate structure and absence of dominant frontrunners keep outcomes highly sensitive to late shifts in alliances, turnout, and additional surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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