Skip to main content
icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Milton Cardoso 32%

Regis Ethur 22%

Polymarket
NEW

Manuela D'Ávila 34%

Marcel Van Hattem 32%

Milton Cardoso 32%

Regis Ethur 22%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$110 Vol.

28%

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$150 Vol.

23%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$69 Vol.

32%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$69 Vol.

22%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$69 Vol.

17%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$69 Vol.

10%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$102 Vol.

10%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$121 Vol.

9%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$68 Vol.

8%

icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$69 Vol.

8%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$155 Vol.

3%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).A fragmented field of over a dozen confirmed candidates for Rio Grande do Sul's two Senate seats keeps first-place probabilities closely matched in trader consensus, with recent July 2026 Quaest polling showing a technical tie among five leading names amid roughly 39% undecided voters. Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) registers the highest single-digit or low-double-digit support in most surveys, followed closely by Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), reflecting divided regional preferences across left, center, and opposition blocs. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August with limited new alliances or major campaign shifts since the latest polls, sustaining dispersion. Separation ahead of the October 4 vote could emerge from shifts in undecided turnout, party coordination on the second seat, or late momentum in key voter segments.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,185
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).A fragmented field of over a dozen confirmed candidates for Rio Grande do Sul's two Senate seats keeps first-place probabilities closely matched in trader consensus, with recent July 2026 Quaest polling showing a technical tie among five leading names amid roughly 39% undecided voters. Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) registers the highest single-digit or low-double-digit support in most surveys, followed closely by Marcel Van Hattem (NOVO), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), reflecting divided regional preferences across left, center, and opposition blocs. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August with limited new alliances or major campaign shifts since the latest polls, sustaining dispersion. Separation ahead of the October 4 vote could emerge from shifts in undecided turnout, party coordination on the second seat, or late momentum in key voter segments.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,185
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Tania Peres win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

Will Tania Peres win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

28%
icon for Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

56%
icon for Will Rosália Fernandes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

Will Rosália Fernandes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

23%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Milton Cardoso" at 32%, followed by "Manuela D'Ávila" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Milton Cardoso" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Manuela D'Ávila" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.