Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$6,000 27%
$6,000-$6,500 24%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
>$8,000 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
27%
$6,000-$6,500
19%
$6,500-$7,000
20%
$7,000-$7,500
18%
$7,500-$8,000
13%
>$8,000
16%
<$6,000 27%
$6,000-$6,500 24%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
>$8,000 16%
$20,962 Vol.
$20,962 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$12,476 Vol.
27%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,400 Vol.
19%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,275 Vol.
20%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,060 Vol.
18%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,723 Vol.
13%
>$8,000
$2,028 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$20,962End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$20,962End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 26.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the leading outcome amid closely contested odds clustered in the $6,000–$7,500 range—reflecting caution despite the index's recent record highs above $7,160 last week. Elevated valuations after a 12.5% one-month rally, driven by AI momentum and solid Q1 earnings, face counterpressures from Big Tech layoffs signaling labor market softening and a companion market's 26% recession odds by December. Key swing factors include upcoming Q2 GDP data, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC signals on further rate cuts from the current Fed funds stance, with analyst targets averaging around $7,650 but vulnerable to earnings revisions or geopolitical flares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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