Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, rates as solidly Republican across forecasters due to its suburban Houston composition and historical voting patterns. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 runoff with strong backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, defeating multiple primary opponents on a platform emphasizing border security, fiscal restraint, and conservative social issues. His campaign has raised over $1.5 million compared to Melissa McDonough's roughly $48,000, reflecting broad donor support in the energy and real estate sectors. McDonough, a realtor who previously challenged Hunt in 2024, won her party's primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a significant Republican baseline advantage. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major late developments such as candidate health events or national political realignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-38 House Election Winner
TX-38 House Election Winner
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
4%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
$17,956 Vol.
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
$10,050 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, rates as solidly Republican across forecasters due to its suburban Houston composition and historical voting patterns. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 runoff with strong backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, defeating multiple primary opponents on a platform emphasizing border security, fiscal restraint, and conservative social issues. His campaign has raised over $1.5 million compared to Melissa McDonough's roughly $48,000, reflecting broad donor support in the energy and real estate sectors. McDonough, a realtor who previously challenged Hunt in 2024, won her party's primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a significant Republican baseline advantage. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major late developments such as candidate health events or national political realignments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, rates as solidly Republican across forecasters due to its suburban Houston composition and historical voting patterns. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 runoff with strong backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, defeating multiple primary opponents on a platform emphasizing border security, fiscal restraint, and conservative social issues. His campaign has raised over $1.5 million compared to Melissa McDonough's roughly $48,000, reflecting broad donor support in the energy and real estate sectors. McDonough, a realtor who previously challenged Hunt in 2024, won her party's primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a significant Republican baseline advantage. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major late developments such as candidate health events or national political realignments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following Rep. Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, rates as solidly Republican across forecasters due to its suburban Houston composition and historical voting patterns. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 runoff with strong backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, defeating multiple primary opponents on a platform emphasizing border security, fiscal restraint, and conservative social issues. His campaign has raised over $1.5 million compared to Melissa McDonough's roughly $48,000, reflecting broad donor support in the energy and real estate sectors. McDonough, a realtor who previously challenged Hunt in 2024, won her party's primary but faces structural headwinds in a district with a significant Republican baseline advantage. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for shifts absent major late developments such as candidate health events or national political realignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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