Market icon
Earnings·Equities

Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?

Market icon
Earnings·Equities

Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?

0% chance
Polymarket
NEW
0% chance
Polymarket
NEW
As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 50% implied probability for Texas Instruments (TXN) to beat Q1 2026 consensus EPS of $1.36, balancing the company's conservative January guidance range of $1.22–$1.48 per share (midpoint $1.35) against stable analyst estimates showing no net revisions in the past 30 days. Recent strength in analog chip demand from AI data centers—where TI added a dedicated segment after 70% Q4 growth—offsets a slight Q4 revenue miss and historical earnings surprises averaging near zero, amid broader semiconductor sales up year-over-year. Key swing factors include industrial and automotive end-market recovery signals; the April 22 earnings release and Q2 guidance will likely tip odds decisively.

As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$6
End Date
Apr 22, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS. Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 50% implied probability for Texas Instruments (TXN) to beat Q1 2026 consensus EPS of $1.36, balancing the company's conservative January guidance range of $1.22–$1.48 per share (midpoint $1.35) against stable analyst estimates showing no net revisions in the past 30 days. Recent strength in analog chip demand from AI data centers—where TI added a dedicated segment after 70% Q4 growth—offsets a slight Q4 revenue miss and historical earnings surprises averaging near zero, amid broader semiconductor sales up year-over-year. Key swing factors include industrial and automotive end-market recovery signals; the April 22 earnings release and Q2 guidance will likely tip odds decisively.

As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$6
End Date
Apr 22, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
As of market creation, Texas Instruments is estimated to release earnings on April 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Texas Instruments's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas Instruments reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Texas Instruments releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Related

Market icon

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

89%
Market icon

Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?

51%
Market icon

Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?

61%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 50% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 50¢, the market collectively assigns a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?" is 50% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.