Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for CarMax (KMX) missing Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.18–$0.19 per share, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle retail sector amid elevated auto loan rates above 7% and softening consumer affordability. Recent Q3 results showed retail used sales declining 7% year-over-year to $4.55 billion, with total gross profit down 13% to $590 million despite a modest EPS beat of $0.51 versus low expectations; margins per unit held steady but volume weakness dominated. Analyst sentiment leans "Reduce" with 19 firms (five sells), average price target $39 amid downward revenue revisions. Key catalysts include the April 14 earnings release and March auto sales data, which could sway resolution if inventory builds or financing eases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
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Apr 14, 2026
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Apr 14, 2026
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for CarMax (KMX) missing Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.18–$0.19 per share, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle retail sector amid elevated auto loan rates above 7% and softening consumer affordability. Recent Q3 results showed retail used sales declining 7% year-over-year to $4.55 billion, with total gross profit down 13% to $590 million despite a modest EPS beat of $0.51 versus low expectations; margins per unit held steady but volume weakness dominated. Analyst sentiment leans "Reduce" with 19 firms (five sells), average price target $39 amid downward revenue revisions. Key catalysts include the April 14 earnings release and March auto sales data, which could sway resolution if inventory builds or financing eases.
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$228End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for CarMax (KMX) missing Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.18–$0.19 per share, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle retail sector amid elevated auto loan rates above 7% and softening consumer affordability. Recent Q3 results showed retail used sales declining 7% year-over-year to $4.55 billion, with total gross profit down 13% to $590 million despite a modest EPS beat of $0.51 versus low expectations; margins per unit held steady but volume weakness dominated. Analyst sentiment leans "Reduce" with 19 firms (five sells), average price target $39 amid downward revenue revisions. Key catalysts include the April 14 earnings release and March auto sales data, which could sway resolution if inventory builds or financing eases.
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$228End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for CarMax (KMX) missing Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.18–$0.19 per share, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle retail sector amid elevated auto loan rates above 7% and softening consumer affordability. Recent Q3 results showed retail used sales declining 7% year-over-year to $4.55 billion, with total gross profit down 13% to $590 million despite a modest EPS beat of $0.51 versus low expectations; margins per unit held steady but volume weakness dominated. Analyst sentiment leans "Reduce" with 19 firms (five sells), average price target $39 amid downward revenue revisions. Key catalysts include the April 14 earnings release and March auto sales data, which could sway resolution if inventory builds or financing eases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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