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icon for Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?
Economy·Patek Index

Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?

icon for Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?
Economy·Patek Index

Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?

$83,802 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$83,802 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $112,000

$32,597 Vol.

No

↑ $109,000

$6,252 Vol.

No

↑ $108,000

$3,386 Vol.

No

↑ $107,000

$13,122 Vol.

Yes

↑ $106,500

$8,796 Vol.

Yes

↑ $106,000

$4,287 Vol.

Yes

↓ $105,000

$1,257 Vol.

Yes

↓ $104,000

$5,370 Vol.

Yes

↓ $103,000

$8,735 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained strength in the Bloomberg x Subdial Patek Philippe Watch Index, a benchmark tracking secondary market prices for the brand's 50 most-traded models by transaction value, which hovered near $100,000 equivalent (£79,600) through late April 2026. Patek led luxury watch gains in February's index update, driven by top-tier models like the Nautilus Perpetual Calendar amid a broader gray market recovery to two-year highs in January, fueled by resilient high-net-worth demand and retail price adjustments up to 8% in select regions. March data showed Patek up 1.2% while the overall market flattened, with Watches & Wonders releases in mid-April providing a final demand catalyst ahead of the April 30 deadline; trading volume exceeded $80,000 across strike levels, underscoring skin-in-the-game positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution.

This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”.

This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$83,802
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 8:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sustained strength in the Bloomberg x Subdial Patek Philippe Watch Index, a benchmark tracking secondary market prices for the brand's 50 most-traded models by transaction value, which hovered near $100,000 equivalent (£79,600) through late April 2026. Patek led luxury watch gains in February's index update, driven by top-tier models like the Nautilus Perpetual Calendar amid a broader gray market recovery to two-year highs in January, fueled by resilient high-net-worth demand and retail price adjustments up to 8% in select regions. March data showed Patek up 1.2% while the overall market flattened, with Watches & Wonders releases in mid-April providing a final demand catalyst ahead of the April 30 deadline; trading volume exceeded $80,000 across strike levels, underscoring skin-in-the-game positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution.

This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”.

This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$83,802
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 8:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Patek Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Patek chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $107,000" at 100%, followed by "↑ $106,500" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?" has generated $83.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?" is "↑ $107,000" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $106,500" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.