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Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

$375,101 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$375,101 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$284,930 Vol.

17%

December 31

$12,088 Vol.

64%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since spring 2025, seeking to secure approaches to the Ukrainian defensive hub at Orikhiv and advance toward Zaporizhzhia City. Ukrainian units, chiefly the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have maintained control through drone strikes, fortified positions including a ruined prison complex, and local counterattacks that have repeatedly repelled mechanized and infantry probes. Russian military channels claimed full capture in November 2025 and again in August 2026, yet open-source mapping and Ukrainian reporting as of late August indicate ongoing fighting with only marginal Russian gains in peripheral areas and no verified consolidation of the settlement. Incremental Russian pressure from adjacent axes has produced small territorial shifts in the broader sector, while Ukrainian drone and artillery defenses continue to inflict high costs on assault groups. Resolution of any capture claim hinges on confirmed control by one side amid active frontline fluidity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png

Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png

Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$375,101
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since spring 2025, seeking to secure approaches to the Ukrainian defensive hub at Orikhiv and advance toward Zaporizhzhia City. Ukrainian units, chiefly the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have maintained control through drone strikes, fortified positions including a ruined prison complex, and local counterattacks that have repeatedly repelled mechanized and infantry probes. Russian military channels claimed full capture in November 2025 and again in August 2026, yet open-source mapping and Ukrainian reporting as of late August indicate ongoing fighting with only marginal Russian gains in peripheral areas and no verified consolidation of the settlement. Incremental Russian pressure from adjacent axes has produced small territorial shifts in the broader sector, while Ukrainian drone and artillery defenses continue to inflict high costs on assault groups. Resolution of any capture claim hinges on confirmed control by one side amid active frontline fluidity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png

Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png

Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$375,101
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 64%, followed by "September 30" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?" has generated $375.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?" is "December 31" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.