Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-37 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-37 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$1,881 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$312 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,192Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,192Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sydney Kamlager-Dove's decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing with roughly 54 percent of the vote, reinforces trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California's 37th congressional district. The seat's partisan voting index, ranging from D+33 to D+50, reflects its urban Los Angeles base and consistent Democratic registration advantage, creating structural barriers for Republican challengers such as Baltazar Fedalizo. Historical results, including the incumbent's prior 78 percent general-election share, further anchor the 95.5 percent implied probability. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented shift in turnout or a major late-cycle event within the November 3 general-election window, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes