The heavily Democratic lean of California's 38th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+50 following recent redistricting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 primary produced Hilda Solis as the clear Democratic standard-bearer in an open seat, where she outperformed other party candidates and the Republican entrant by double-digit margins. This outcome aligns with the district's voter registration patterns and historical results in similar Southern California seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm variability, though low-probability events such as a major candidate scandal or turnout collapse remain theoretically possible before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-38 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-38 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$58,838 Vol.
$58,838 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
2%
$58,838 Vol.
$58,838 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$29,240 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$29,598 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 38th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+50 following recent redistricting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 primary produced Hilda Solis as the clear Democratic standard-bearer in an open seat, where she outperformed other party candidates and the Republican entrant by double-digit margins. This outcome aligns with the district's voter registration patterns and historical results in similar Southern California seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm variability, though low-probability events such as a major candidate scandal or turnout collapse remain theoretically possible before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$58,838Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 38th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+50 following recent redistricting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 primary produced Hilda Solis as the clear Democratic standard-bearer in an open seat, where she outperformed other party candidates and the Republican entrant by double-digit margins. This outcome aligns with the district's voter registration patterns and historical results in similar Southern California seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm variability, though low-probability events such as a major candidate scandal or turnout collapse remain theoretically possible before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,838Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of California's 38th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+50 following recent redistricting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The June 2 primary produced Hilda Solis as the clear Democratic standard-bearer in an open seat, where she outperformed other party candidates and the Republican entrant by double-digit margins. This outcome aligns with the district's voter registration patterns and historical results in similar Southern California seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or localized disruption exceeding typical midterm variability, though low-probability events such as a major candidate scandal or turnout collapse remain theoretically possible before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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