California’s 38th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+20 in most analyses, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by nearly two-to-one across Los Angeles and Orange County portions. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and current L.A. County supervisor with substantial fundraising and institutional support, against Republican Pedro Casas. All major forecasters rate the November general as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or significant polling shifts. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-38 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-38 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$63,872 Vol.
$63,872 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
1%
$63,872 Vol.
$63,872 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$32,210 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$31,662 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 38th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+20 in most analyses, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by nearly two-to-one across Los Angeles and Orange County portions. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and current L.A. County supervisor with substantial fundraising and institutional support, against Republican Pedro Casas. All major forecasters rate the November general as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or significant polling shifts. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$63,872Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 38th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+20 in most analyses, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by nearly two-to-one across Los Angeles and Orange County portions. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and current L.A. County supervisor with substantial fundraising and institutional support, against Republican Pedro Casas. All major forecasters rate the November general as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or significant polling shifts. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,872Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 38th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+20 in most analyses, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by nearly two-to-one across Los Angeles and Orange County portions. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and current L.A. County supervisor with substantial fundraising and institutional support, against Republican Pedro Casas. All major forecasters rate the November general as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus on a Democratic victory aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or significant polling shifts. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges or candidate-specific issues remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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