Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California’s 42nd congressional district, securing over half the vote while Republican challengers split support and failed to consolidate. The district’s partisan composition, shaped by recent redistricting, favors Democrats by double-digit margins consistent with prior cycles. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A Republican win would require an unusually large swing in turnout or a significant late development such as a major candidate-specific event, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or campaign activity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-42
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-42
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$7,749 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$1,058 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California’s 42nd congressional district, securing over half the vote while Republican challengers split support and failed to consolidate. The district’s partisan composition, shaped by recent redistricting, favors Democrats by double-digit margins consistent with prior cycles. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A Republican win would require an unusually large swing in turnout or a significant late development such as a major candidate-specific event, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or campaign activity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,807Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California’s 42nd congressional district, securing over half the vote while Republican challengers split support and failed to consolidate. The district’s partisan composition, shaped by recent redistricting, favors Democrats by double-digit margins consistent with prior cycles. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A Republican win would require an unusually large swing in turnout or a significant late development such as a major candidate-specific event, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or campaign activity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,807Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California’s 42nd congressional district, securing over half the vote while Republican challengers split support and failed to consolidate. The district’s partisan composition, shaped by recent redistricting, favors Democrats by double-digit margins consistent with prior cycles. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A Republican win would require an unusually large swing in turnout or a significant late development such as a major candidate-specific event, neither of which has materialized in recent polling or campaign activity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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