Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election on September 14, 2026, driven by his June victory in the United Conservative Party nomination contest over Calgary city councillor Dan McLean and the riding’s established UCP strength. The seat opened after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz resigned, and the governing party’s candidate benefits from historical margins exceeding 3,000 votes in the 2023 general election. NDP nominee Kyle Campbell represents the primary opposition but faces structural challenges in a southwest Calgary riding where UCP support has remained consistent. Minor-party contenders, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen, register minimal probabilities reflecting limited organizational presence and historical vote shares. The recent by-election call and candidate declarations have reinforced expectations of a UCP hold without notable late shifts in the short campaign window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 18%
John Roggeveen 5.3%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
77%
Kyle Campbell
18%
John Roggeveen
5%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 18%
John Roggeveen 5.3%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
77%
Kyle Campbell
18%
John Roggeveen
5%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election on September 14, 2026, driven by his June victory in the United Conservative Party nomination contest over Calgary city councillor Dan McLean and the riding’s established UCP strength. The seat opened after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz resigned, and the governing party’s candidate benefits from historical margins exceeding 3,000 votes in the 2023 general election. NDP nominee Kyle Campbell represents the primary opposition but faces structural challenges in a southwest Calgary riding where UCP support has remained consistent. Minor-party contenders, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen, register minimal probabilities reflecting limited organizational presence and historical vote shares. The recent by-election call and candidate declarations have reinforced expectations of a UCP hold without notable late shifts in the short campaign window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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