Trader consensus assigns roughly 24% implied probability to a CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) by year-end, driven primarily by the continued absence of any active extreme-risk outbreaks. Official CDC monitoring shows zero Level 4 notices as of early June 2026, with Ebola Bundibugyo virus limited to Level 3 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, alongside scattered Level 2 alerts for chikungunya, malaria, and measles. Current case trajectories and transmission patterns remain below the threshold for “extreme health risk with no available precautions.” While new variants, expanded Ebola spread, or an unforeseen surge could trigger escalation before December 31, surveillance data and model consensus indicate such developments remain low-probability over the next six months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe CDC émet un avertissement de niveau 4 d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Le CDC émet un avertissement de niveau 4 d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Oui
$71,851 Vol.
$71,851 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$71,851 Vol.
$71,851 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns roughly 24% implied probability to a CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) by year-end, driven primarily by the continued absence of any active extreme-risk outbreaks. Official CDC monitoring shows zero Level 4 notices as of early June 2026, with Ebola Bundibugyo virus limited to Level 3 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, alongside scattered Level 2 alerts for chikungunya, malaria, and measles. Current case trajectories and transmission patterns remain below the threshold for “extreme health risk with no available precautions.” While new variants, expanded Ebola spread, or an unforeseen surge could trigger escalation before December 31, surveillance data and model consensus indicate such developments remain low-probability over the next six months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$71,851Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns roughly 24% implied probability to a CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) by year-end, driven primarily by the continued absence of any active extreme-risk outbreaks. Official CDC monitoring shows zero Level 4 notices as of early June 2026, with Ebola Bundibugyo virus limited to Level 3 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, alongside scattered Level 2 alerts for chikungunya, malaria, and measles. Current case trajectories and transmission patterns remain below the threshold for “extreme health risk with no available precautions.” While new variants, expanded Ebola spread, or an unforeseen surge could trigger escalation before December 31, surveillance data and model consensus indicate such developments remain low-probability over the next six months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,851Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns roughly 24% implied probability to a CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice (“Avoid All Travel”) by year-end, driven primarily by the continued absence of any active extreme-risk outbreaks. Official CDC monitoring shows zero Level 4 notices as of early June 2026, with Ebola Bundibugyo virus limited to Level 3 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, alongside scattered Level 2 alerts for chikungunya, malaria, and measles. Current case trajectories and transmission patterns remain below the threshold for “extreme health risk with no available precautions.” While new variants, expanded Ebola spread, or an unforeseen surge could trigger escalation before December 31, surveillance data and model consensus indicate such developments remain low-probability over the next six months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes