The primary driver behind traders' 96.3% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 is the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced roughly 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,380 deaths as of mid-August yet remains regionally contained with no pandemic designation from the WHO. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no cases in the United States, persistently low risk to global travelers, and effective containment measures including contact tracing and isolation that have historically prevented similar outbreaks from escalating. While the event qualifies as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its transmission dynamics, geographic limits, and robust international response make sustained worldwide spread improbable. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to new regions, sustained high case growth exceeding response capacity, or viral changes enhancing transmissibility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$698,457 Vol.
$698,457 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
4% chance
$698,457 Vol.
$698,457 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver behind traders' 96.3% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 is the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced roughly 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,380 deaths as of mid-August yet remains regionally contained with no pandemic designation from the WHO. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no cases in the United States, persistently low risk to global travelers, and effective containment measures including contact tracing and isolation that have historically prevented similar outbreaks from escalating. While the event qualifies as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its transmission dynamics, geographic limits, and robust international response make sustained worldwide spread improbable. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to new regions, sustained high case growth exceeding response capacity, or viral changes enhancing transmissibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$698,457Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver behind traders' 96.3% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 is the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced roughly 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,380 deaths as of mid-August yet remains regionally contained with no pandemic designation from the WHO. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no cases in the United States, persistently low risk to global travelers, and effective containment measures including contact tracing and isolation that have historically prevented similar outbreaks from escalating. While the event qualifies as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its transmission dynamics, geographic limits, and robust international response make sustained worldwide spread improbable. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to new regions, sustained high case growth exceeding response capacity, or viral changes enhancing transmissibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$698,457Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver behind traders' 96.3% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 is the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which has produced roughly 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,380 deaths as of mid-August yet remains regionally contained with no pandemic designation from the WHO. Official CDC and WHO surveillance shows no cases in the United States, persistently low risk to global travelers, and effective containment measures including contact tracing and isolation that have historically prevented similar outbreaks from escalating. While the event qualifies as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its transmission dynamics, geographic limits, and robust international response make sustained worldwide spread improbable. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected exportation to new regions, sustained high case growth exceeding response capacity, or viral changes enhancing transmissibility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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