Databricks’ closely matched market-implied odds across $300–450 billion IPO closing market-cap buckets, alongside a 21.5% probability of no listing by end-2027, reflect trader consensus on its rapid scaling amid valuation skepticism. The company closed an August 2026 $5 billion round at a $190 billion private valuation after ARR rose to $7 billion (over 80% YoY), supported by AI product momentum and net revenue retention above 140%. Yet PitchBook and Morningstar analyses highlight stretched multiples near 27 times run-rate and question sustainable margins as agent workloads inflate infrastructure costs, contrasting with Snowflake’s lower public valuation. CEO signals point to a 2027 debut to avoid a crowded calendar, leaving outcomes dependent on execution, public-market risk appetite, and comparable transaction pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour200 M$–250 M$ 97%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars 97%
350–400 milliards $ 97%
300-350 milliards $ 96%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
<150 milliards $
-
150-200 milliards $
-
200 M$–250 M$
97%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars
97%
300-350 milliards $
96%
350–400 milliards $
97%
400 à 450 milliards de dollars
-
450 milliards $ +
-
Pas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2027
22%
200 M$–250 M$ 97%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars 97%
350–400 milliards $ 97%
300-350 milliards $ 96%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
<150 milliards $
$18 Vol.
-
150-200 milliards $
$18 Vol.
-
200 M$–250 M$
$18 Vol.
97%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars
$18 Vol.
97%
300-350 milliards $
$18 Vol.
96%
350–400 milliards $
$18 Vol.
97%
400 à 450 milliards de dollars
$18 Vol.
-
450 milliards $ +
$18 Vol.
-
Pas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2027
$272 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks’ closely matched market-implied odds across $300–450 billion IPO closing market-cap buckets, alongside a 21.5% probability of no listing by end-2027, reflect trader consensus on its rapid scaling amid valuation skepticism. The company closed an August 2026 $5 billion round at a $190 billion private valuation after ARR rose to $7 billion (over 80% YoY), supported by AI product momentum and net revenue retention above 140%. Yet PitchBook and Morningstar analyses highlight stretched multiples near 27 times run-rate and question sustainable margins as agent workloads inflate infrastructure costs, contrasting with Snowflake’s lower public valuation. CEO signals point to a 2027 debut to avoid a crowded calendar, leaving outcomes dependent on execution, public-market risk appetite, and comparable transaction pricing.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$416Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks’ closely matched market-implied odds across $300–450 billion IPO closing market-cap buckets, alongside a 21.5% probability of no listing by end-2027, reflect trader consensus on its rapid scaling amid valuation skepticism. The company closed an August 2026 $5 billion round at a $190 billion private valuation after ARR rose to $7 billion (over 80% YoY), supported by AI product momentum and net revenue retention above 140%. Yet PitchBook and Morningstar analyses highlight stretched multiples near 27 times run-rate and question sustainable margins as agent workloads inflate infrastructure costs, contrasting with Snowflake’s lower public valuation. CEO signals point to a 2027 debut to avoid a crowded calendar, leaving outcomes dependent on execution, public-market risk appetite, and comparable transaction pricing.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$416Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Databricks’ closely matched market-implied odds across $300–450 billion IPO closing market-cap buckets, alongside a 21.5% probability of no listing by end-2027, reflect trader consensus on its rapid scaling amid valuation skepticism. The company closed an August 2026 $5 billion round at a $190 billion private valuation after ARR rose to $7 billion (over 80% YoY), supported by AI product momentum and net revenue retention above 140%. Yet PitchBook and Morningstar analyses highlight stretched multiples near 27 times run-rate and question sustainable margins as agent workloads inflate infrastructure costs, contrasting with Snowflake’s lower public valuation. CEO signals point to a 2027 debut to avoid a crowded calendar, leaving outcomes dependent on execution, public-market risk appetite, and comparable transaction pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La capitalisation boursière de Stripe sera-t-elle d'au moins 500 milliards de dollars à la clôture du marché le jour de son introduction en bourse ?
44%
Oui
La capitalisation boursière de SB Energy sera-t-elle comprise entre 40 et 50 milliards de dollars à la clôture du marché le jour de son introduction en bourse ?
27%
Oui
La valorisation de Databricks atteindra-t-elle (HAUT) 200 milliards de dollars d'ici le 31 décembre ?
56%
Oui
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