Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 240-299 tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 260-279 leading at 20.5% implied probability, 240-259 and 280-299 close behind at 18.5% each, reflecting his recent volatile posting patterns averaging 30-40 per day across Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political jabs. Daily swings—from single digits during quiet periods to 60+ amid news like SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1 and Terafab project announcements—fuel the tight race, as traders weigh his multitasking across xAI training reveals and DOGE advisory role. Key swing factors include back-to-back SpaceX launches on April 10 and Tesla Q1 earnings buildup on April 22, which could spike viral engagement or temper output if focus shifts offline. Markets capture the wisdom of crowds betting on sustained high-volume cultural dominance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour260-279 21%
240-259 19%
280-299 19%
220-239 12%
$603,619 Vol.
$603,619 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
12%
240-259
19%
260-279
21%
280-299
19%
300-319
11%
320-339
7%
340-359
3%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 21%
240-259 19%
280-299 19%
220-239 12%
$603,619 Vol.
$603,619 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
12%
240-259
19%
260-279
21%
280-299
19%
300-319
11%
320-339
7%
340-359
3%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 240-299 tweets for Elon Musk from April 10-17, with 260-279 leading at 20.5% implied probability, 240-259 and 280-299 close behind at 18.5% each, reflecting his recent volatile posting patterns averaging 30-40 per day across Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political jabs. Daily swings—from single digits during quiet periods to 60+ amid news like SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1 and Terafab project announcements—fuel the tight race, as traders weigh his multitasking across xAI training reveals and DOGE advisory role. Key swing factors include back-to-back SpaceX launches on April 10 and Tesla Q1 earnings buildup on April 22, which could spike viral engagement or temper output if focus shifts offline. Markets capture the wisdom of crowds betting on sustained high-volume cultural dominance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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