Skip to main content

Pour trader aux États-Unis, va sur polymarket.us

icon for Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

icon for Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 20.6%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 2.5%

Baciro Djá 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,382 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 20.6%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 2.5%

Baciro Djá 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,382 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,228 Vol.

21%

José Mário Vaz

$22,291 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,004 Vol.

9%

Baciro Djá

$14,548 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Titre d'élément du groupe : João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,661 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

1%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in this fragmented field following his strong performance and claimed victory in the annulled November 2025 presidential vote, where he drew backing from the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance and elements of the PAIGC opposition. The November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and scheduled fresh elections for December 2026 has lowered Embaló’s odds while elevating uncertainty around military influence, opposition coordination, and the impact of the August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded presidential powers and imposed a five-year residency requirement. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá, further split support in a system where consolidation behind one contender hinges on alliances, turnout patterns, and transitional authorities’ stance ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,382
Date de fin
23 nov. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader consensus in this fragmented field following his strong performance and claimed victory in the annulled November 2025 presidential vote, where he drew backing from the PAI–Terra Ranka alliance and elements of the PAIGC opposition. The November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, installed a transitional junta under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, and scheduled fresh elections for December 2026 has lowered Embaló’s odds while elevating uncertainty around military influence, opposition coordination, and the impact of the August 2026 constitutional referendum that expanded presidential powers and imposed a five-year residency requirement. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including José Mário Vaz and Baciro Djá, further split support in a system where consolidation behind one contender hinges on alliances, turnout patterns, and transitional authorities’ stance ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,382
Date de fin
23 nov. 2025
Marché ouvert
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for La Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » remportera-t-elle le plus de sièges lors des élections de 2025 à l’Assemblée nationale populaire de Guinée-Bissau ?

La Platforma Reupblicana « Nô Kumpu Guiné » remportera-t-elle le plus de sièges lors des élections de 2025 à l’Assemblée nationale populaire de Guinée-Bissau ?

20%
Oui
icon for José Maria Neves va-t-il remporter l'élection présidentielle au Cap-Vert ?

José Maria Neves va-t-il remporter l'élection présidentielle au Cap-Vert ?

79%
Oui
icon for Adama Barrow va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle gambienne de 2026 ?

Adama Barrow va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle gambienne de 2026 ?

74%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Fernando Dias da Costa » à 21%, suivi de « Umaro Sissoco Embaló » à 9%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 21¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 21% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » a généré $339.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 6, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » est « Fernando Dias da Costa » à 21%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 21% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Umaro Sissoco Embaló » à 9%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle en Guinée-Bissau » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.