Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée au Cap le 1er août ?
Température la plus élevée au Cap le 1er août ?
24°C 30%
25°C 29%
26°C 17%
23°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C
14%
24°C
30%
25°C
29%
26°C
17%
27°C
6%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 30%
25°C 29%
26°C 17%
23°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
19°C or below
$620 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$98 Vol.
1%
21°C
$254 Vol.
3%
22°C
$221 Vol.
6%
23°C
$360 Vol.
14%
24°C
$370 Vol.
30%
25°C
$150 Vol.
29%
26°C
$1,886 Vol.
17%
27°C
$536 Vol.
6%
28°C
$337 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$413 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,245Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,245Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a mild winter high near 20°C for Cape Town on August 1, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 24–25°C because traders weigh the potential for warmer-than-average conditions driven by variable subtropical ridging, reduced cloud cover, and light northerly flow that can elevate daytime maxima several degrees above the 17–18°C seasonal norm. Ensemble spread in short-range forecasts creates the near-even split between those two outcomes, while lower probabilities for 27°C or above reflect the low likelihood of strong warm advection or berg wind events this early in the season. Updated model runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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