Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 28°C (35.5%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 18, closely trailed by 29°C (27.0%) and 27°C (21.0%), driven by the latest AEMET guidance forecasting a maximum of 28°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport amid a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering subtropical warmth from North Africa. This setup exceeds April climatological norms of 18–20°C, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 27–29°C but diverging on peak afternoon heating due to variable low-level moisture and potential convective clouds. Key differentiators include model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects in Madrid; traders await tomorrow's 00Z model runs and AEMET update for resolution clarity before the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
27°C 23%
30°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
9%
27°C
23%
28°C
34%
29°C
28%
30°C
13%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
27°C 23%
30°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
22°C or below
$195 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$144 Vol.
1%
24°C
$423 Vol.
1%
25°C
$100 Vol.
2%
26°C
$19 Vol.
9%
27°C
$61 Vol.
23%
28°C
$82 Vol.
34%
29°C
$22 Vol.
28%
30°C
$234 Vol.
13%
31°C
$90 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$470 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 28°C (35.5%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 18, closely trailed by 29°C (27.0%) and 27°C (21.0%), driven by the latest AEMET guidance forecasting a maximum of 28°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport amid a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering subtropical warmth from North Africa. This setup exceeds April climatological norms of 18–20°C, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 27–29°C but diverging on peak afternoon heating due to variable low-level moisture and potential convective clouds. Key differentiators include model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects in Madrid; traders await tomorrow's 00Z model runs and AEMET update for resolution clarity before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volume
$1,817Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 28°C (35.5%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 18, closely trailed by 29°C (27.0%) and 27°C (21.0%), driven by the latest AEMET guidance forecasting a maximum of 28°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport amid a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering subtropical warmth from North Africa. This setup exceeds April climatological norms of 18–20°C, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 27–29°C but diverging on peak afternoon heating due to variable low-level moisture and potential convective clouds. Key differentiators include model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects in Madrid; traders await tomorrow's 00Z model runs and AEMET update for resolution clarity before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,817Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 28°C (35.5%) as Madrid's highest temperature on April 18, closely trailed by 29°C (27.0%) and 27°C (21.0%), driven by the latest AEMET guidance forecasting a maximum of 28°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport amid a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering subtropical warmth from North Africa. This setup exceeds April climatological norms of 18–20°C, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 27–29°C but diverging on peak afternoon heating due to variable low-level moisture and potential convective clouds. Key differentiators include model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects in Madrid; traders await tomorrow's 00Z model runs and AEMET update for resolution clarity before the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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