A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 3 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 3 juillet ?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$63,699 Vol.
$63,699 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$63,699 Vol.
$63,699 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
19°C or below
$1,930 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,388 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,135 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,250 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,460 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,175 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,893 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,874 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,613 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$5,145 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$3,836 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Volume
$63,699Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$63,699Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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