Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 5 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 5 ans avant 2027 ?
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
5,25 %
50%
5,10 %
50%
5,00 %
50%
4,95 %
50%
4,90 %
50%
4,85 %
50%
4,80 %
49%
4,75 %
48%
4,70 %
49%
$0.00 Vol.
5,25 %
$0 Vol.
50%
5,10 %
$0 Vol.
50%
5,00 %
$0 Vol.
50%
4,95 %
$0 Vol.
50%
4,90 %
$0 Vol.
50%
4,85 %
$0 Vol.
50%
4,80 %
$0 Vol.
49%
4,75 %
$0 Vol.
48%
4,70 %
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes