Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.27% as of early September 2026, up sharply from lower levels earlier in the year amid expectations for fewer or no rate cuts and a higher neutral policy rate. Elevated term premiums reflect fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy Treasury supply, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Geopolitical tensions boosting oil prices have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where markets price roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Resolution of these data points and policy signals will shape whether yields can decline meaningfully before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Sous 5,20 %
50%
Sous 5,15 %
50%
Sous 5,10 %
50%
Sous 5,05 %
50%
Sous 5,00 %
50%
Sous 4,95 %
50%
Sous 4,90%
49%
En dessous de 4,80 %
49%
En dessous de 4,60 %
48%
$0.00 Vol.
Sous 5,20 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 5,15 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 5,10 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 5,05 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 5,00 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,95 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,90%
$0 Vol.
49%
En dessous de 4,80 %
$0 Vol.
49%
En dessous de 4,60 %
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.27% as of early September 2026, up sharply from lower levels earlier in the year amid expectations for fewer or no rate cuts and a higher neutral policy rate. Elevated term premiums reflect fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy Treasury supply, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Geopolitical tensions boosting oil prices have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where markets price roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Resolution of these data points and policy signals will shape whether yields can decline meaningfully before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.27% as of early September 2026, up sharply from lower levels earlier in the year amid expectations for fewer or no rate cuts and a higher neutral policy rate. Elevated term premiums reflect fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy Treasury supply, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Geopolitical tensions boosting oil prices have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where markets price roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Resolution of these data points and policy signals will shape whether yields can decline meaningfully before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.27% as of early September 2026, up sharply from lower levels earlier in the year amid expectations for fewer or no rate cuts and a higher neutral policy rate. Elevated term premiums reflect fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy Treasury supply, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure. Geopolitical tensions boosting oil prices have further supported yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, where markets price roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Resolution of these data points and policy signals will shape whether yields can decline meaningfully before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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