The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.53-4.55 percent, reflecting elevated term premiums driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, geopolitical oil price shocks, and heavy Treasury supply amid widening federal deficits exceeding 6 percent of GDP. Recent labor market resilience and hawkish policy repricing have pushed real yields higher, offsetting any disinflation progress and keeping market-implied odds tilted against sharp declines. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether the Fed maintains its restrictive stance or signals modest easing. Fiscal supply dynamics and inflation trajectory remain the dominant swing factors through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 5 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 5 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Sous 4,50 %
50%
Sous 4,45 %
50%
Sous 4,40 %
50%
Sous 4,35 %
50%
Sous 4,30 %
50%
En dessous de 4,25 %
50%
Sous 4,20 %
50%
Sous 4,10 %
50%
Sous 4,00 %
50%
$0.00 Vol.
Sous 4,50 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,45 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,40 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,35 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,30 %
$0 Vol.
50%
En dessous de 4,25 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,20 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,10 %
$0 Vol.
50%
Sous 4,00 %
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.53-4.55 percent, reflecting elevated term premiums driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, geopolitical oil price shocks, and heavy Treasury supply amid widening federal deficits exceeding 6 percent of GDP. Recent labor market resilience and hawkish policy repricing have pushed real yields higher, offsetting any disinflation progress and keeping market-implied odds tilted against sharp declines. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether the Fed maintains its restrictive stance or signals modest easing. Fiscal supply dynamics and inflation trajectory remain the dominant swing factors through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.53-4.55 percent, reflecting elevated term premiums driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, geopolitical oil price shocks, and heavy Treasury supply amid widening federal deficits exceeding 6 percent of GDP. Recent labor market resilience and hawkish policy repricing have pushed real yields higher, offsetting any disinflation progress and keeping market-implied odds tilted against sharp declines. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether the Fed maintains its restrictive stance or signals modest easing. Fiscal supply dynamics and inflation trajectory remain the dominant swing factors through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.53-4.55 percent, reflecting elevated term premiums driven by persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, geopolitical oil price shocks, and heavy Treasury supply amid widening federal deficits exceeding 6 percent of GDP. Recent labor market resilience and hawkish policy repricing have pushed real yields higher, offsetting any disinflation progress and keeping market-implied odds tilted against sharp declines. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 16 FOMC decision, which could clarify whether the Fed maintains its restrictive stance or signals modest easing. Fiscal supply dynamics and inflation trajectory remain the dominant swing factors through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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