Idaho's 2nd Congressional District remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern and northern Boise footprint plus strong conservative voter bases in rural areas. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent, facing Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. Simpson's long tenure, prior 61 percent reelection margin in 2024, and the district's consistent partisan tilt underpin the 93.5 percent Republican implied probability. Traders see limited pathways for an upset, given historical turnout patterns and the absence of major recent polling shifts or scandals. A late-breaking national wave, unexpected primary-style surprise, or significant candidate health event would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourID-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
ID-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
94%
Parti démocrate
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$13,015 Vol.
94%
Parti démocrate
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd Congressional District remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern and northern Boise footprint plus strong conservative voter bases in rural areas. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent, facing Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. Simpson's long tenure, prior 61 percent reelection margin in 2024, and the district's consistent partisan tilt underpin the 93.5 percent Republican implied probability. Traders see limited pathways for an upset, given historical turnout patterns and the absence of major recent polling shifts or scandals. A late-breaking national wave, unexpected primary-style surprise, or significant candidate health event would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$30,364Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd Congressional District remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern and northern Boise footprint plus strong conservative voter bases in rural areas. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent, facing Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. Simpson's long tenure, prior 61 percent reelection margin in 2024, and the district's consistent partisan tilt underpin the 93.5 percent Republican implied probability. Traders see limited pathways for an upset, given historical turnout patterns and the absence of major recent polling shifts or scandals. A late-breaking national wave, unexpected primary-style surprise, or significant candidate health event would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,364Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's 2nd Congressional District remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern and northern Boise footprint plus strong conservative voter bases in rural areas. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the GOP nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 63 percent, facing Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. Simpson's long tenure, prior 61 percent reelection margin in 2024, and the district's consistent partisan tilt underpin the 93.5 percent Republican implied probability. Traders see limited pathways for an upset, given historical turnout patterns and the absence of major recent polling shifts or scandals. A late-breaking national wave, unexpected primary-style surprise, or significant candidate health event would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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