Recent official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and international models indicate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms expected over Lucknow on September 24–25, driven by an active monsoon system with high humidity levels above 80% and moderate northeasterly winds. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting minimum temperatures in the 22–24°C range, consistent with historical September baselines near 23°C during unsettled weather. Ensemble model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact thresholds, particularly whether enhanced cloud cover and precipitation will push the low toward or below 22°C versus slightly warmer outcomes near 24–25°C if rain timing shifts. Upcoming IMD updates and refined numerical weather prediction runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.