Current ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread in the overnight minimum on September 14, with deterministic runs clustering near 20–24 °C while some members dip toward the mid-teens under stronger radiative cooling and light winds. Clear skies and the urban heat-island effect at the Buen Retiro station are key variables that could push the low either below 16 °C or sustain values near or above 26 °C, especially if southerly flow persists versus a subtle northerly shift. Historical September 14 climatology centers on 15.7 °C, yet the current warm anomaly and limited lead time keep probabilities nearly balanced between the two tails. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Madrid le 14 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Madrid le 14 septembre ?
16°C ou moins 74%
26°C ou plus 39%
18°C 37%
19°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
16°C ou moins
74%
17°C
24%
18°C
37%
19°C
37%
20°C
37%
21°C
37%
22°C
37%
23°C
37%
24°C
37%
25°C
37%
26°C ou plus
39%
16°C ou moins 74%
26°C ou plus 39%
18°C 37%
19°C 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 sept. 2026
16°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
74%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
37%
19°C
$0 Vol.
37%
20°C
$0 Vol.
37%
21°C
$0 Vol.
37%
22°C
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24°C
$0 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
37%
26°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread in the overnight minimum on September 14, with deterministic runs clustering near 20–24 °C while some members dip toward the mid-teens under stronger radiative cooling and light winds. Clear skies and the urban heat-island effect at the Buen Retiro station are key variables that could push the low either below 16 °C or sustain values near or above 26 °C, especially if southerly flow persists versus a subtle northerly shift. Historical September 14 climatology centers on 15.7 °C, yet the current warm anomaly and limited lead time keep probabilities nearly balanced between the two tails. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread in the overnight minimum on September 14, with deterministic runs clustering near 20–24 °C while some members dip toward the mid-teens under stronger radiative cooling and light winds. Clear skies and the urban heat-island effect at the Buen Retiro station are key variables that could push the low either below 16 °C or sustain values near or above 26 °C, especially if southerly flow persists versus a subtle northerly shift. Historical September 14 climatology centers on 15.7 °C, yet the current warm anomaly and limited lead time keep probabilities nearly balanced between the two tails. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
14 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts for Madrid show notable spread in the overnight minimum on September 14, with deterministic runs clustering near 20–24 °C while some members dip toward the mid-teens under stronger radiative cooling and light winds. Clear skies and the urban heat-island effect at the Buen Retiro station are key variables that could push the low either below 16 °C or sustain values near or above 26 °C, especially if southerly flow persists versus a subtle northerly shift. Historical September 14 climatology centers on 15.7 °C, yet the current warm anomaly and limited lead time keep probabilities nearly balanced between the two tails. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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