Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Madrid le 12 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Madrid le 12 septembre ?
11°C ou moins 95%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
17°C 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
95%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14°C
24%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C
39%
18°C
20%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C ou plus
7%
11°C ou moins 95%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
17°C 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 sept. 2026
11°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
95%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
24%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 50% across multiple temperature buckets for Madrid's September 12 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty just 48 hours out. Mid-September climatology places typical overnight minima near 15–17 °C under transitional autumn conditions, yet current model runs diverge on the strength and timing of an approaching Atlantic trough versus lingering high pressure. Key variables include 850 hPa temperatures, cloud-cover evolution, and boundary-layer mixing; a stronger cold advection signal could push readings to 12 °C or lower, while clear, calm nights favor 18–20 °C. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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