**Trader consensus strongly favors 14°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Munich on August 27, 2026, reflecting high confidence in current numerical weather prediction models.** Forecast guidance from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicates the minimum will occur during the pre-dawn hours through radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds and dew points supporting a drop to near 14°C after daytime highs reached the mid-20s to low-30s °C. This aligns with typical late-August boundary-layer cooling rates in southern Germany when high pressure dominates and nocturnal inversions form. Historical climatology shows an average low near 13°C for the date, providing additional context for the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected low-level moisture or increased cloud cover that reduces outgoing longwave radiation, warmer southeasterly advection, or model bias in urban heat-island effects around the observation site. Updated model runs or official DWD observations in the final hours of the period could shift probabilities if conditions deviate from the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Munich le 27 août ?
La température la plus basse à Munich le 27 août ?
14°C 100.0%
13°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$8,239 Vol.
$8,239 Vol.
27 août 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
13°C 1.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$8,239 Vol.
$8,239 Vol.
27 août 2026
10°C or below
$164 Vol.
No
11°C
$751 Vol.
No
12°C
$91 Vol.
No
13°C
$105 Vol.
No
14°C
$6,180 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$288 Vol.
No
16°C
$438 Vol.
No
17°C
$110 Vol.
No
18°C
$25 Vol.
No
19°C
$25 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$64 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 14°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Munich on August 27, 2026, reflecting high confidence in current numerical weather prediction models.**
Forecast guidance from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicates the minimum will occur during the pre-dawn hours through radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds and dew points supporting a drop to near 14°C after daytime highs reached the mid-20s to low-30s °C. This aligns with typical late-August boundary-layer cooling rates in southern Germany when high pressure dominates and nocturnal inversions form. Historical climatology shows an average low near 13°C for the date, providing additional context for the market-implied odds.
Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected low-level moisture or increased cloud cover that reduces outgoing longwave radiation, warmer southeasterly advection, or model bias in urban heat-island effects around the observation site. Updated model runs or official DWD observations in the final hours of the period could shift probabilities if conditions deviate from the current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,239Date de fin
27 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 14°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Munich on August 27, 2026, reflecting high confidence in current numerical weather prediction models.**
Forecast guidance from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicates the minimum will occur during the pre-dawn hours through radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds and dew points supporting a drop to near 14°C after daytime highs reached the mid-20s to low-30s °C. This aligns with typical late-August boundary-layer cooling rates in southern Germany when high pressure dominates and nocturnal inversions form. Historical climatology shows an average low near 13°C for the date, providing additional context for the market-implied odds.
Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected low-level moisture or increased cloud cover that reduces outgoing longwave radiation, warmer southeasterly advection, or model bias in urban heat-island effects around the observation site. Updated model runs or official DWD observations in the final hours of the period could shift probabilities if conditions deviate from the current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,239Date de fin
27 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
**Trader consensus strongly favors 14°C as the lowest temperature recorded in Munich on August 27, 2026, reflecting high confidence in current numerical weather prediction models.** Forecast guidance from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicates the minimum will occur during the pre-dawn hours through radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds and dew points supporting a drop to near 14°C after daytime highs reached the mid-20s to low-30s °C. This aligns with typical late-August boundary-layer cooling rates in southern Germany when high pressure dominates and nocturnal inversions form. Historical climatology shows an average low near 13°C for the date, providing additional context for the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected low-level moisture or increased cloud cover that reduces outgoing longwave radiation, warmer southeasterly advection, or model bias in urban heat-island effects around the observation site. Updated model runs or official DWD observations in the final hours of the period could shift probabilities if conditions deviate from the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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