**Current forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global ensembles like GFS/ECMWF, indicate a daily minimum temperature for Seoul/Incheon on September 24, 2026, centered near 19–20°C.** This reflects typical late-September autumn transition conditions, with recent daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20s°C and overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Partly cloudy to overcast conditions expected overnight limit extreme cooling, while moderate humidity (around 70–90%) and weak northwesterly flows prevent stronger drops. Historical September baselines for the region show average lows near 17–19°C, placing the current setup slightly above normal but consistent with stable high-pressure influence and no incoming frontal systems. Model consensus has remained steady in the past 24–48 hours, with limited spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 19–20°C outcomes (combined ~83.5% implied probability). Minor upward revisions in some short-range guidance reflect slightly higher cloud cover reducing heat loss, while any clearer spells could nudge the minimum toward 18°C. Key upcoming inputs include the next KMA update and overnight observational trends, which will refine resolution criteria tied to official station readings (typically Incheon or Seoul stations). Traders are pricing in this narrow, data-constrained range given the short time to resolution and low volatility in current atmospheric conditions.