Forecast consensus from MetService and aligned models points to a daily minimum near 9–10°C for Wellington on August 27, driven by a trough-induced southerly flow early in the period that moderates under shifting northerlies and increasing cloud cover, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent above-average temperatures this month (departures of +0.3 to +0.4°C) and persistent wind mixing from the Tasman Sea trough have reduced the likelihood of sharp drops below 8°C, while the chance of clearer intervals or stronger southerlies keeps 7–8°C outcomes in play. Traders weigh these variables against historical August minima averaging near 8°C, with model timing differences on frontal passage creating the tight spread among 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C contracts; warmer 15°C+ probabilities likely reflect uncertainty over whether the recorded low could stay elevated under strong mixing. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on wind shifts will be the next key inputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Wellington le 27 août ?
La température la plus basse à Wellington le 27 août ?
15°C ou plus 67%
8°C 42%
11°C 29%
10°C 28%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
27 août 2026
5°C ou moins
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
27%
8°C
42%
9°C
27%
10°C
28%
11°C
29%
12°C
6%
13°C
4%
14°C
1%
15°C ou plus
67%
15°C ou plus 67%
8°C 42%
11°C 29%
10°C 28%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
27 août 2026
5°C ou moins
$157 Vol.
1%
6°C
$15 Vol.
4%
7°C
$0 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
42%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$23 Vol.
6%
13°C
$18 Vol.
4%
14°C
$169 Vol.
1%
15°C ou plus
$157 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and aligned models points to a daily minimum near 9–10°C for Wellington on August 27, driven by a trough-induced southerly flow early in the period that moderates under shifting northerlies and increasing cloud cover, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent above-average temperatures this month (departures of +0.3 to +0.4°C) and persistent wind mixing from the Tasman Sea trough have reduced the likelihood of sharp drops below 8°C, while the chance of clearer intervals or stronger southerlies keeps 7–8°C outcomes in play. Traders weigh these variables against historical August minima averaging near 8°C, with model timing differences on frontal passage creating the tight spread among 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C contracts; warmer 15°C+ probabilities likely reflect uncertainty over whether the recorded low could stay elevated under strong mixing. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on wind shifts will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$537Date de fin
27 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and aligned models points to a daily minimum near 9–10°C for Wellington on August 27, driven by a trough-induced southerly flow early in the period that moderates under shifting northerlies and increasing cloud cover, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent above-average temperatures this month (departures of +0.3 to +0.4°C) and persistent wind mixing from the Tasman Sea trough have reduced the likelihood of sharp drops below 8°C, while the chance of clearer intervals or stronger southerlies keeps 7–8°C outcomes in play. Traders weigh these variables against historical August minima averaging near 8°C, with model timing differences on frontal passage creating the tight spread among 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C contracts; warmer 15°C+ probabilities likely reflect uncertainty over whether the recorded low could stay elevated under strong mixing. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on wind shifts will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$537Date de fin
27 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from MetService and aligned models points to a daily minimum near 9–10°C for Wellington on August 27, driven by a trough-induced southerly flow early in the period that moderates under shifting northerlies and increasing cloud cover, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent above-average temperatures this month (departures of +0.3 to +0.4°C) and persistent wind mixing from the Tasman Sea trough have reduced the likelihood of sharp drops below 8°C, while the chance of clearer intervals or stronger southerlies keeps 7–8°C outcomes in play. Traders weigh these variables against historical August minima averaging near 8°C, with model timing differences on frontal passage creating the tight spread among 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C contracts; warmer 15°C+ probabilities likely reflect uncertainty over whether the recorded low could stay elevated under strong mixing. Updated model runs and MetService briefings on wind shifts will be the next key inputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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