Maryland’s 3rd congressional district remains a reliably Democratic seat anchored in Baltimore and surrounding suburban areas, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election margins have consistently favored the party by double digits. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election cycle with established constituent services, legislative record, and fundraising advantages that reinforce trader expectations of continued party control. The limited Republican field, including challenger Berney Flowers, has not generated measurable momentum or external factors capable of narrowing the gap. While the 95.5% Democratic consensus reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a major national political shift, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre MD-03
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre MD-03
$28,143 Vol.
$28,143 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
96%
Parti républicain
6%
$28,143 Vol.
$28,143 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$20,775 Vol.
96%
Parti républicain
$7,368 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district remains a reliably Democratic seat anchored in Baltimore and surrounding suburban areas, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election margins have consistently favored the party by double digits. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election cycle with established constituent services, legislative record, and fundraising advantages that reinforce trader expectations of continued party control. The limited Republican field, including challenger Berney Flowers, has not generated measurable momentum or external factors capable of narrowing the gap. While the 95.5% Democratic consensus reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a major national political shift, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$28,143Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district remains a reliably Democratic seat anchored in Baltimore and surrounding suburban areas, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election margins have consistently favored the party by double digits. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election cycle with established constituent services, legislative record, and fundraising advantages that reinforce trader expectations of continued party control. The limited Republican field, including challenger Berney Flowers, has not generated measurable momentum or external factors capable of narrowing the gap. While the 95.5% Democratic consensus reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a major national political shift, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,143Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 3rd congressional district remains a reliably Democratic seat anchored in Baltimore and surrounding suburban areas, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election margins have consistently favored the party by double digits. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election cycle with established constituent services, legislative record, and fundraising advantages that reinforce trader expectations of continued party control. The limited Republican field, including challenger Berney Flowers, has not generated measurable momentum or external factors capable of narrowing the gap. While the 95.5% Democratic consensus reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a major national political shift, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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