Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten seeks re-election in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, which has trended Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+4 and carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Scholten won her last general election by roughly ten points after first capturing the seat in 2022, establishing a solid base in a district now rated Likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. The Republican primary on August 4 features lower-profile candidates with limited fundraising, offering no immediate threat to the incumbent’s position. These structural and candidate factors underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee an 88.5 percent implied probability, while Republicans sit near 10 percent. Upcoming primary results and any late-cycle developments could still influence positioning before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMI-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MI-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
89%
Parti républicain
10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$8,122 Vol.
89%
Parti républicain
$739 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten seeks re-election in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, which has trended Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+4 and carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Scholten won her last general election by roughly ten points after first capturing the seat in 2022, establishing a solid base in a district now rated Likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. The Republican primary on August 4 features lower-profile candidates with limited fundraising, offering no immediate threat to the incumbent’s position. These structural and candidate factors underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee an 88.5 percent implied probability, while Republicans sit near 10 percent. Upcoming primary results and any late-cycle developments could still influence positioning before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$8,861Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten seeks re-election in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, which has trended Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+4 and carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Scholten won her last general election by roughly ten points after first capturing the seat in 2022, establishing a solid base in a district now rated Likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. The Republican primary on August 4 features lower-profile candidates with limited fundraising, offering no immediate threat to the incumbent’s position. These structural and candidate factors underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee an 88.5 percent implied probability, while Republicans sit near 10 percent. Upcoming primary results and any late-cycle developments could still influence positioning before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,861Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten seeks re-election in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district, which has trended Democratic with a partisan voting index around D+4 and carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Scholten won her last general election by roughly ten points after first capturing the seat in 2022, establishing a solid base in a district now rated Likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. The Republican primary on August 4 features lower-profile candidates with limited fundraising, offering no immediate threat to the incumbent’s position. These structural and candidate factors underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee an 88.5 percent implied probability, while Republicans sit near 10 percent. Upcoming primary results and any late-cycle developments could still influence positioning before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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