Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican structural advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the area’s rural and suburban voter base, historical margins, and the recently upheld redrawn map produced by the Republican-controlled legislature. Incumbent Mark Alford faces limited primary opposition on August 4, while Democratic candidates compete in their own primary without evidence of competitive general-election infrastructure. Factors that could narrow the gap remain low-probability, including major candidate scandals, unusually high opposition turnout, or unforeseen legal developments affecting district lines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$20,778 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican structural advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the area’s rural and suburban voter base, historical margins, and the recently upheld redrawn map produced by the Republican-controlled legislature. Incumbent Mark Alford faces limited primary opposition on August 4, while Democratic candidates compete in their own primary without evidence of competitive general-election infrastructure. Factors that could narrow the gap remain low-probability, including major candidate scandals, unusually high opposition turnout, or unforeseen legal developments affecting district lines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican structural advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the area’s rural and suburban voter base, historical margins, and the recently upheld redrawn map produced by the Republican-controlled legislature. Incumbent Mark Alford faces limited primary opposition on August 4, while Democratic candidates compete in their own primary without evidence of competitive general-election infrastructure. Factors that could narrow the gap remain low-probability, including major candidate scandals, unusually high opposition turnout, or unforeseen legal developments affecting district lines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican structural advantage ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 92.5% Republican implied probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the area’s rural and suburban voter base, historical margins, and the recently upheld redrawn map produced by the Republican-controlled legislature. Incumbent Mark Alford faces limited primary opposition on August 4, while Democratic candidates compete in their own primary without evidence of competitive general-election infrastructure. Factors that could narrow the gap remain low-probability, including major candidate scandals, unusually high opposition turnout, or unforeseen legal developments affecting district lines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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