Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent’s 71 percent victory in 2024. Mark Alford, the sitting representative since 2023, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain fragmented and underfunded for the November general. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 92.5 percent trader-implied probability. A significant shift would require an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$20,778 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent’s 71 percent victory in 2024. Mark Alford, the sitting representative since 2023, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain fragmented and underfunded for the November general. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 92.5 percent trader-implied probability. A significant shift would require an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent’s 71 percent victory in 2024. Mark Alford, the sitting representative since 2023, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain fragmented and underfunded for the November general. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 92.5 percent trader-implied probability. A significant shift would require an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent’s 71 percent victory in 2024. Mark Alford, the sitting representative since 2023, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain fragmented and underfunded for the November general. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 92.5 percent trader-implied probability. A significant shift would require an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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