Missouri’s fourth congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, and the reelection bid of incumbent Mark Alford. Primary filings closed with Alford facing limited intra-party opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented and under-resourced relative to the district’s structural lean. Midterm dynamics and the enacted congressional map have further entrenched this positioning, producing the current 92.5% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate scandal, successful court challenges to district boundaries, or an unusually high national turnout surge among opposition voters, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MO-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$20,778 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s fourth congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, and the reelection bid of incumbent Mark Alford. Primary filings closed with Alford facing limited intra-party opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented and under-resourced relative to the district’s structural lean. Midterm dynamics and the enacted congressional map have further entrenched this positioning, producing the current 92.5% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate scandal, successful court challenges to district boundaries, or an unusually high national turnout surge among opposition voters, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s fourth congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, and the reelection bid of incumbent Mark Alford. Primary filings closed with Alford facing limited intra-party opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented and under-resourced relative to the district’s structural lean. Midterm dynamics and the enacted congressional map have further entrenched this positioning, producing the current 92.5% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate scandal, successful court challenges to district boundaries, or an unusually high national turnout surge among opposition voters, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,928Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s fourth congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, and the reelection bid of incumbent Mark Alford. Primary filings closed with Alford facing limited intra-party opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic contenders remain fragmented and under-resourced relative to the district’s structural lean. Midterm dynamics and the enacted congressional map have further entrenched this positioning, producing the current 92.5% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate scandal, successful court challenges to district boundaries, or an unusually high national turnout surge among opposition voters, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable safe seats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes