Missouri’s 5th congressional district enters the 2026 cycle under a newly enacted Republican-drawn map that shifts its partisan balance rightward after years of Democratic dominance. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won 60 percent in 2024, faces a primary on August 4 against no significant challengers, while six Republicans, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Navy veteran Taylor Burks, compete for the nomination. Cook Political Report rates the seat a Solid Republican flip following court approval of the map in May, reflecting the district’s new boundaries that incorporate more rural and suburban territory outside Kansas City. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 60.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the structural change and limited polling available this early, though the general election remains five months after the primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre MO-05
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre MO-05
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
61%
Parti démocrate
30%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$1,756 Vol.
61%
Parti démocrate
$1,171 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 5th congressional district enters the 2026 cycle under a newly enacted Republican-drawn map that shifts its partisan balance rightward after years of Democratic dominance. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won 60 percent in 2024, faces a primary on August 4 against no significant challengers, while six Republicans, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Navy veteran Taylor Burks, compete for the nomination. Cook Political Report rates the seat a Solid Republican flip following court approval of the map in May, reflecting the district’s new boundaries that incorporate more rural and suburban territory outside Kansas City. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 60.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the structural change and limited polling available this early, though the general election remains five months after the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$2,928Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 5th congressional district enters the 2026 cycle under a newly enacted Republican-drawn map that shifts its partisan balance rightward after years of Democratic dominance. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won 60 percent in 2024, faces a primary on August 4 against no significant challengers, while six Republicans, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Navy veteran Taylor Burks, compete for the nomination. Cook Political Report rates the seat a Solid Republican flip following court approval of the map in May, reflecting the district’s new boundaries that incorporate more rural and suburban territory outside Kansas City. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 60.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the structural change and limited polling available this early, though the general election remains five months after the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,928Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 5th congressional district enters the 2026 cycle under a newly enacted Republican-drawn map that shifts its partisan balance rightward after years of Democratic dominance. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won 60 percent in 2024, faces a primary on August 4 against no significant challengers, while six Republicans, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Navy veteran Taylor Burks, compete for the nomination. Cook Political Report rates the seat a Solid Republican flip following court approval of the map in May, reflecting the district’s new boundaries that incorporate more rural and suburban territory outside Kansas City. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 60.5 percent implied probability of victory, consistent with the structural change and limited polling available this early, though the general election remains five months after the primaries.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes