Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 55% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) closing above $425 on March 25, driven primarily by the stock's post-earnings momentum from January's Azure cloud beat (36% YoY growth) and escalating AI demand for Copilot integrations. MSFT trades at $418 intraday, up 2% weekly amid broader tech rally following FOMC's March 20 dovish pivot signaling three 2024 rate cuts, easing borrowing costs for capex-heavy Big Tech. Key risks include Friday's Michigan sentiment data and PCE inflation preview on March 29, which could spark volatility if hotter-than-expected; historical precedent shows MSFT gains 1.2% average post-Fed in bull markets. Watch $422 resistance for breakout cues ahead of April 25 earnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour360 $
97%
370 $
59%
380 $
32%
390 $
2%
400 $
4%
$711 Vol.
360 $
97%
370 $
59%
380 $
32%
390 $
2%
400 $
4%
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 55% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) closing above $425 on March 25, driven primarily by the stock's post-earnings momentum from January's Azure cloud beat (36% YoY growth) and escalating AI demand for Copilot integrations. MSFT trades at $418 intraday, up 2% weekly amid broader tech rally following FOMC's March 20 dovish pivot signaling three 2024 rate cuts, easing borrowing costs for capex-heavy Big Tech. Key risks include Friday's Michigan sentiment data and PCE inflation preview on March 29, which could spark volatility if hotter-than-expected; historical precedent shows MSFT gains 1.2% average post-Fed in bull markets. Watch $422 resistance for breakout cues ahead of April 25 earnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes