Recent rejections by Peru’s Presidential Pardons Commission and Ministry of Justice have closed Castillo’s formal clemency applications, including on humanitarian grounds, reinforcing the current administration’s stance against early release. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction of 11 years and five months for rebellion remains under appeal, with procedural barriers limiting immediate pardons. A tight June 2026 presidential runoff between leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez—who has pledged clemency—and Keiko Fujimori keeps any potential executive action contingent on election certification, transition timing, and swift legislative or judicial follow-through before year-end. Traders price these combined legal, electoral, and timeline constraints as yielding an 85.5% probability against a 2026 pardon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
$33,508 Vol.
$33,508 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$33,508 Vol.
$33,508 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejections by Peru’s Presidential Pardons Commission and Ministry of Justice have closed Castillo’s formal clemency applications, including on humanitarian grounds, reinforcing the current administration’s stance against early release. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction of 11 years and five months for rebellion remains under appeal, with procedural barriers limiting immediate pardons. A tight June 2026 presidential runoff between leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez—who has pledged clemency—and Keiko Fujimori keeps any potential executive action contingent on election certification, transition timing, and swift legislative or judicial follow-through before year-end. Traders price these combined legal, electoral, and timeline constraints as yielding an 85.5% probability against a 2026 pardon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$33,508Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rejections by Peru’s Presidential Pardons Commission and Ministry of Justice have closed Castillo’s formal clemency applications, including on humanitarian grounds, reinforcing the current administration’s stance against early release. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction of 11 years and five months for rebellion remains under appeal, with procedural barriers limiting immediate pardons. A tight June 2026 presidential runoff between leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez—who has pledged clemency—and Keiko Fujimori keeps any potential executive action contingent on election certification, transition timing, and swift legislative or judicial follow-through before year-end. Traders price these combined legal, electoral, and timeline constraints as yielding an 85.5% probability against a 2026 pardon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,508Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rejections by Peru’s Presidential Pardons Commission and Ministry of Justice have closed Castillo’s formal clemency applications, including on humanitarian grounds, reinforcing the current administration’s stance against early release. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction of 11 years and five months for rebellion remains under appeal, with procedural barriers limiting immediate pardons. A tight June 2026 presidential runoff between leftist candidate Roberto Sánchez—who has pledged clemency—and Keiko Fujimori keeps any potential executive action contingent on election certification, transition timing, and swift legislative or judicial follow-through before year-end. Traders price these combined legal, electoral, and timeline constraints as yielding an 85.5% probability against a 2026 pardon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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