Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on the month's typical climatological decline, with preliminary National Weather Service data showing just 28 confirmed tornadoes through mid-September amid weak mid-level shear and limited instability. This positions the market near the 25-49 bin at 49% implied probability, closely matched by 50-74 and 75-124 outcomes as traders weigh whether residual activity from tropical remnants or isolated late-month impulses could add 20-40 more events before October. Official SPC outlooks through September 30 indicate only marginal severe risk in the southern Appalachians with negligible tornado probabilities, consistent with historical September averages of 50-70 touchdowns driven mainly by decaying tropical systems rather than widespread supercell outbreaks. Final verification adjustments and any undetected reports in the remaining days introduce the main uncertainty separating the tightly bunched leading bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTornades américaines de septembre 2026
Tornades américaines de septembre 2026
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
50 - 74 41%
Moins de 25 3.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
3%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
41%
75 - 124
47%
125 ou plus
3%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 47%
50 - 74 41%
Moins de 25 3.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
49%
50 - 74
$35 Vol.
41%
75 - 124
$89 Vol.
47%
125 ou plus
$50 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on the month's typical climatological decline, with preliminary National Weather Service data showing just 28 confirmed tornadoes through mid-September amid weak mid-level shear and limited instability. This positions the market near the 25-49 bin at 49% implied probability, closely matched by 50-74 and 75-124 outcomes as traders weigh whether residual activity from tropical remnants or isolated late-month impulses could add 20-40 more events before October. Official SPC outlooks through September 30 indicate only marginal severe risk in the southern Appalachians with negligible tornado probabilities, consistent with historical September averages of 50-70 touchdowns driven mainly by decaying tropical systems rather than widespread supercell outbreaks. Final verification adjustments and any undetected reports in the remaining days introduce the main uncertainty separating the tightly bunched leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$224Date de fin
14 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on the month's typical climatological decline, with preliminary National Weather Service data showing just 28 confirmed tornadoes through mid-September amid weak mid-level shear and limited instability. This positions the market near the 25-49 bin at 49% implied probability, closely matched by 50-74 and 75-124 outcomes as traders weigh whether residual activity from tropical remnants or isolated late-month impulses could add 20-40 more events before October. Official SPC outlooks through September 30 indicate only marginal severe risk in the southern Appalachians with negligible tornado probabilities, consistent with historical September averages of 50-70 touchdowns driven mainly by decaying tropical systems rather than widespread supercell outbreaks. Final verification adjustments and any undetected reports in the remaining days introduce the main uncertainty separating the tightly bunched leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$224Date de fin
14 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on the month's typical climatological decline, with preliminary National Weather Service data showing just 28 confirmed tornadoes through mid-September amid weak mid-level shear and limited instability. This positions the market near the 25-49 bin at 49% implied probability, closely matched by 50-74 and 75-124 outcomes as traders weigh whether residual activity from tropical remnants or isolated late-month impulses could add 20-40 more events before October. Official SPC outlooks through September 30 indicate only marginal severe risk in the southern Appalachians with negligible tornado probabilities, consistent with historical September averages of 50-70 touchdowns driven mainly by decaying tropical systems rather than widespread supercell outbreaks. Final verification adjustments and any undetected reports in the remaining days introduce the main uncertainty separating the tightly bunched leading bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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